An Overview
Security landscape of South Asia was characterized by an increased number of conflict-related casualties in the month of July. As many as 1,731 were killed and another 1,269 injured across the region which depicts an over 30 percent increase in overall casualties as compared with those recorded in previous month. This increase was significant in case of Afghanistan and Pakistan where overall casualty figures, including deaths and injuries, went up by about 35 and 24 percent respectively. Increasing violence and insecurity in Afghanistan mainly due to upsurge in militants’ attacks and their clashes with security forces can put Afghanistan into danger of a civil war particularly when drawdown of international forces has started and counter-insurgency capabilities of Afghan security forces are being questioned by many. Pakistan’s security situation also remained volatile during the reporting month where 781 people were killed and 701 others were injured in various incidents of terrorist attacks, Baloch insurgents’ attacks, target killing, and political and sectarian violence etc. Increased number of CIA-operated Drones further pushed the casualty toll up. In India the Maoists increased their attacks against the security forces and carried out major attacks in the areas of Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Orissa. As many as 83 people were killed and 150 others were injured in India due to Maoist insurgency, political violence, police encounters and militant activities. The security challenge once again rose in the Occupied Jammu and Kashmir as 22 people lost their lives while 30 others were injured during security forces shelling, encounters of security forces with militants and infiltration incidents. However, Sri Lanka and Maldives remained calm and peaceful (See Chart1).

Chart 1: Casualties in South Asia in July 2011

1-Afghanistan[1]
Afghanistan witnessed the highest number of casualties this month since the beginning of year 2011; before this in the month of May 1208 casualties were recorded owing to militants’ so-called ‘Spring Offensive’. The overall 1232 casualties included 844 deaths while another 388 people also got wounded. Amongst the killed were 215 civilians, 23 International Security Assistant Forces troops, 503 militants and 86 personnel of Afghan National Police (ANP) and 17 Afghan National Army (ANA) troops. While 212 civilians, three ISAF soldiers, 73 militants, 89 ANP and 11 ANA personnel were amongst the injured. On the contrary the number of suicide attacks in various places of Afghanistan decreased as compared with previous month. But most of these 10 suicide attacks had high intensity and targeted high profile people and important places (See Table 1).

Besides suicide attacks, militants also used other attack tactics such as hand grenades, kidnapping of influential people, and targeted killing of important persons such as murder of Hamid Karzai’s brother Wali Karzai. Increase in the overall casualties is attributed to the higher number of clashes between Taliban and security forces. Secondly higher number of militants’ attacks was recorded in the areas where process of security transition was under way from US/NATO forces to Afghan security forces.

The cross-border violence in bordering areas of Afghanistan and Pakistan continued in the reporting month. Major attacks were reported from Kamdish area of Nuristan,[2] and artillery shelling in Helmand.[3] These cross-border shelling and attacks inside Afghanistan raged the local people who staged protests against Pakistan. The Karzai Government took serious notice and warned by saying, “we don’t want to kill the Pakistanis”.[4] In order to tackle with this problem Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani talked to president Karzai on having a joint military commission.[5] 

2-India[6]
Most volatile areas remained Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Orissa. Three bomb blasts in Mumbai killed 25 people and injured 141 others.[7] During the month various incidents of clashes between security forces and militants, landmine blasts, political violence and Maoist attacks on the security forces claimed lives of 83 people among them were 76 civilians, 16 militants and one police personnel. As many as 150 others were injured including 147 civilians, two security forces’ personnel and one militant. The report alert of CPRF said that the Maoist had acquired expertise to trigger IED blast in air posing a great security challenge.[8]

As a confidence building measure with Maoists, the government decided to set up open air jails in Jharkhand to lodge good prisoners.[9] In Chhattisgarh, government lowered educational qualification for recruitment in armed and police forces for adivasi youth.[10] To control the situation in India four battalions of CPRF approved by Indian Home Minister P. Chidambaram will be deployed in state soon. Government also established adivasi youth armed force against the Maoist.[11] In Orissa security was heightened in areas of Maoist influence owing to the protests against the Orissa Government and unrest. Also the court ordered release of the 40 Maoists in Orissa.[12]

3-Kashmir[13]
In July Kashmir witnessed the highest number of casualties since the beginning of the year. Increased casualty figure was attributed to higher number of violent incidents mainly encounters between army and militants of Lashker-e Taiba and Hizbul Mujahidin, foiled infiltration bids, improvised explosive device blast at police station, mine blasts and military shelling. In such incidents 22 people were killed including 17 militants, three civilians and two security forces’ personnel. Among 30 injured there were 22 security forces’ personnel and eight civilians.

The foreign-minister level talks were held between the Pakistan and India, which made tangible progress on the Jammu and Kashmir issue and raised the concern of the Kashmiri people. At the same time the meeting of Pakistan’s foreign minister with leaders of All Party Hurriyet Conference – Kashmiri political groups that advocate secession from India – was a gesture of involving the stakeholders in this domain.[14] In this realm Jammu and Kashmir’s Opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) Patron, Mufti Muhammad Sayeed proclaimed, “the government of India has ‘realized’ it cannot win over Kashmir by force and there is a need to move from the ‘stated position’ to resolve the vexed issue.” The PDP president Mehbooba Mufti said, “We do not believe in traditional politics. For peace-building in Kashmir and resolution of the vexed issue we want to be a bridge between India and Pakistan.”[15]

4-Nepal[16]
The overall security situation in Nepal remained under control. However in one of the total three violent incidents of low intensity blasts reported in July, a militant of Janatantrik Tarai Madhesh Mukti Morcha (JTMMM) – an outfit waging fight in the Terai region – was killed by unidentified militia men. During their search and hunt operations the security forces found a number of Improvised Explosive Devices (IED) from various places and also detained a few militants of a rebel group active in Terai area.

At the political front Prime Minister Jhala Nath Khanal urged Unified Communist Party of Nepal –Maoist (UCPN-M) Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal to end the deadlock in the peace and constitution-drafting processes by resolving prickly issues in the latter’s party.[17] As the UCPN-M was shuffling its party structure and Maoist leadership under will be formed according to the pact after 31st August 2011 conditioned to the resignation of the Prime Minister.[18] The Unified CPN-Maoist and Nepali Congress also agreed to intensify bi- and multi-lateral talks to implement the ‘five-point deal’ that was struck among UCPN-M, NC and CPN-UML on May 28 when the Constituent Assembly term was extended by three months.[19]

5-Sri Lanka[20]
Sri Lanka remained calm and peaceful as no violent incident was recorded in the country during the reporting month. The government however seems well aware of the fact that the absence of violence is not a real peace. Therefore, it is trying to have a greater check on the rehabilitated cadres of the LTTE who are suspected to join the separatist groups. Prime Minister D. M. Jayaratna in his address to the parliament said that even though the war against the LTTE was over there were attempts by some groups to revive the conflict once again.[21] Therefore to fight the threat of the LTTE’s ideological growing up in the country the government asked the Tamil political leadership in opposition to help the reorganization of the factions of the LTTE with the other separatists both internally and internationally.[22] To find a political solution of the ethnic problem in this regard the government of Sri Lanka also asked the militant groups to give up their arms and shun their violent activities.[23]

6-Maldives[24]
Maldives also remained peaceful and calm with no incidents of violence in the July. However the Maldivian government was challenged by the Islamist elements of the country over its relations with the Zionist country Israel. While at the same time Maldives’ economic ties with Pakistan are improving.

7-Pakistan
See the conflict and security report on Pakistan available at https://san-pips.com/index.php?action=reports&id=212

Notes