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PIPS Reports
South Asia Conflict Report: February 2011



Published: March 17, 2011


An Overview
The security landscape of South Asian region more or less remained the same with slight variations in security features of Pakistan, Afghanistan and India. Notwithstanding a decrease of 11 percent in the casualty figure the overall security situation was volatile.  This decrease in overall incidents of violence and terrorism can be attributed to a 29 percent decline in the number of terrorism attacks and violent incidents in Pakistan where 232 attacks claimed lives of 397 people and injured 380 others. Meanwhile India witnessed a decrease of 90 percent in casualty rate but India’s internal security situation continued to plummet due to widening scope of Maoist insurgents’ guerilla activities. On the contrary the war stricken Afghanistan witnessed rise in the number of casualties where terrorist incidents and counter-terrorism operations left as many as 370 people dead and345 others wounded. From the last few months the Indian occupied Kashmir has witnessed a considerably lesser number of casualties, as in the reporting month only 9 people were killed and 7 were injured in the gun fights and street protests.

In Nepal and Sri Lanka security situation was more or less peaceful where in various incidents of political protests and clashes 10 and 6 people were killed respectively. Maldives remained the most peaceful country of the region as no violent incident was reported here.  (See Chart1)

South Asia Security Landscape

 

Killed

Injured

Casualties

Pakistan

397

380

777

Afghanistan

370

345

715

India

35

2

37

Kashmir

9

7

16

Nepal

10

0

10

Sri Lanka

6

0

6

Maldives

0

0

0

Total

827

734

1561


Chart 1: Casualties in South Asia

1-Afghanistan[1]
In Afghanistan the security situation deteriorated as the number of militancy related casualties witnessed a sharp increase mainly due to ascent in the number of injures. A great percentage among the killings was that of civilians and personnel of Afghan National Police (ANP). Apart from the civilian casualties in suicide attacks, airstrikes of International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) have also contributed to escalating civilian casualties. This has not only been corroborated by the investigation teams—constituted by Afghan government-- probing into the matter of civilian casualties in Afghan conflict but UN also corroborated this fact. According to the Annual Report of United Nations, 2010 remained the most lethal year for the non combatants and the steady upward trend continues to unfold in 2011 as well.[2] These killings have been equally condemned by the Afghan government, human rights and civil society organizations as well as Hizb-i-Islami Afghanistan (HIA) [3].

It merits a mention here that the number of the ANP personnel killed during the conflict is constantly on a hike. This reporting month as many as 370 people --including 74 militants, 217 civilians, 25 ISAF troops, 46 ANP and eight Afghan National Army (ANA) personnel-- were killed. Whereas 345 others-- among them were 37 militants, 287 civilians, 5 ANA and 16 ANP personnel—were injured.

In the reporting month seven suicide attacks were reported from Kabul, Kandhar, Faryab and Khost provinces which targeted the shopping centers, police force and government offices. During intensive search and hunt operations the Afghan security forces detained over a hundred terrorists including militants associated with Hizb-e-Islami Afghanistan (HIA) and a would-be suicide bomber—a Pakistani national--  in connection with Jalalabad suicide attack. Afghan government vociferously criticized cross-border militant movement into Afghanistan from Pakistan’s tribal areas. However, NATO/ISAF forces consider it rather irrelevant in the extension of its forces’ stay in the country to fight the infiltration of terrorists.[4]

ISAF spokesman, Brigadier General Josef Blotz, maintained the increase in suicide attacks indicates defeat of terrorists.  Addressing a press conference he said, “Militants were unable to fight with security personnel face to face which was why they had resorted to suicide attacks”.[5]

2-India[6]
In India the enhanced security measures put in place by the law enforcement agencies are delivering the peace dividends. However, despite a 90 percent decrease in the casualty figure police has not succeeded in curtailing the widening scope of Maoist’s activities notably in tribal rural areas in eastern parts of India. In the reporting month as many as 35 people –including 15 civilians, six security forces personnel and 11 militants— were killed while two civilians were injured in different insurgent attacks, police operations and militant clashes.

Maoist leader Prasad, while talking to a local TV channel said that, “We do not believe in violence. But the system targets poor people to benefit the rich through violent means. So we also resort to violence to root out the violent system.”[7] This provides motivation to the Maoists who continued targeting the government installations and infrastructure, abductions and hampering the normal lives of people.

This reporting month eastern part of India remained under the Maoist unrest, especially Orissa where Maoist insurgents brought out a protest rally and called for a strike demanding immediate end to the ongoing Operation Green Hunt. Resultantly government was compelled to halt the military operation in Orissa temporarily. The Maoist combatants also abducted a District Collector and an engineer[8] to use them as a bargain chip to secure release of Maoist militants under government detention. In the aftermath of this development government beefed the security measures in Maoists' stronghold areas by deploying additional troops.  Moreover, as a precautionary measure, against growing number of Maoists pressure and attacks, the government temporarily suspended the regular train service in Orissa as well.
In addition to this after a lull and hiatus of few months, fresh violence erupted at Osmania University campus in Hyderabad, which has been the epicenter of movement for statehood for Telangana. Pro-Telangana activists, demonstrations were also staged in this regard.[9] 

3-Kashmir[10]
In the reporting month, 16 casualties were recorded from different areas of Kashmir. During various incidents of shoot outs and clashes between the police force and protestors nine people were killed --including six civilians and three militants, while seven people were injured-- including one army personnel and six civilians.  Moreover, during their search and hunt operations Indian security forces detained 11 people as well.

Union Home Minister, P. Chidambaram hinted that the Indian central government would expedite the process to resolve the Kashmir dispute once it receives final recommendations from the three interlocutors appointed by it to prepare roadmap for an amicable “political settlement”.[11] Whereas, the Chief Interlocutor Dileep Padgaonkar maintained that they were waiting for a response from separatists for talks which has been refused by the separatists who are determined to continue their armed struggle.[12] According to him such a state of affairs makes the Kashmir resolution even more difficult and complicated in terms of making workable strategies.

3-Nepal[13]
Nepal witnessed few incidents of violence claiming 10 lives – including one police personnel, one army troop, two militant and six civilians.

At political front the deadlock continues to persist between government and Maoists which not only makes process of political reconciliation a rather difficult one but also a major stumbling block to process of re-writing the constitution. On February 13, the United Communist Party of Nepal- Maoist (UCPN-M), along with its sister organizations celebrated the People’s War Day and claimed that still their objectives are not taken seriously.[14] The Nepalese government, however, is convinced that demilitarization of the Maoists and the integration of combatants is pivotal to peacemaking efforts.[15] At the same time the United Nations has urged Nepal’s government to start enrolling combatants in UN rehabilitation process to tackle with impediment of peace process.

 4-Sri Lanka[16]
In Sri Lanka the security situation remained comparatively stable while in a couple of reported violent incidents –including a clash between two political parties and attack on a journalist -- six civilians were injured. Sri Lankan government’s endeavors to eradicate the ideological basis of Liberation Tigers of Taamil Ealam (LTTE) from the society through rehabilitation are of much importance as these efforts truly look into ensuring better and normal life for the rehabilitated cadres.[17]

however, the international network of LTTE is perceived as a serious threat by many foreign countries who have not only imposed a ban on this group but also launched search operations against them. The recent arrests of some LTTE cadres outside Sri Lanka is referred to as a big blow to its functioning within and outside Sri Lanka.[18]

5-Maldives[19]
Maldives maintained calm and peaceful security situation with no incident of violence recorded there. At the political level through democratic and liberal ways sustained functioning of security was ensured.  

6-Pakistan
See the conflict and security report on Pakistan available at https://san-pips.com/index.php?action=reports&id=179  

[1] Statistics and information is based on Pajhwok- a news agency- reports and news archives available at http://www.pajhwok.com/ and Surghar Daily a news agency accessible at http://www.surgar.net/english/.
[2] “Targeted Civilian killings spiral in Afghan war,” Daily Times, Islamabad, March 10,2011.
[3] “HIA condemns civilian deaths,” Pajhwok, February 23, 2011; “Investigators confirm civilian deaths,” Pajhwok, February 24, 2011.
[4] “US bases to help stop foreign meddling: Azimi,” Pajhwok, February 20, 2011.
[5] “Suicide attacks increased due to militants' defeat: ISAF,” Pajhwok, February 28, 2011.
[6] Statistic and information is based on The Hindustan Times Online  reports using the newspaper’s archives available at http//www.hindustantimes.com
[7] “We do not believe in violence: Maoist leader Prasad,” Hindustan Times, February21, 2011.
[8] “Maoists abduct Orissa IAS officer, CM Patnaik pleads,” Hindustan Times, February 17, 2011.
[9] “Violence at Osmania University,” Hindustan Times, February19, 2011
[10] Statistic and information is based on Greater Kashmir Online reports using the newspaper’s archives available at http://www.greaterkashmir.com
[11] “PC reviews security, development scenario,” Greater Kashmir, February 4, 2011.
[12] “We are waiting for separatists’ response: Padgaonkar,” Greater Kashmir, February 6, 2011.
[13] References and news collection made from http//www.nepalnews.com
[14] “UCPN (Maoist) commemorating People's War Day,” Nepalnews, February 13, 2011.
[15] “Army integration to top new govt's agenda,” Nepalnews, February 4, 2011.
[16] The data and information are collected from http//www.dailymirror.lk.com
[17]“Rehabilitants to be monitored,” Daily Mirror Online, February 6, 2011.
[18] “LTTE arrests, a major blow – PM,” Daily Mirror Online, February 8, 2011.
[19] The news and information is gathered from Daily Miadhu  published from Male, http// www.miadhu.com

 
 
 

   
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