An Overview|
South Asian security landscape showed mixed trends of peace and volatility, with slight variations. In various incidents of Islamist militancy, insurgencies and ethno-political violence across the region at least 1013 people were killed and 772 others were injured, registering an overall decrease of 17 percent. Pakistan remained the most unstable country with 556 killings and 556 injuries in various incidents of terrorism, ethnic and sectarian strife, politically motivated targeted killings, drone strikes and military operations. Afghanistan was the second most volatile country where 377 people were killed and 204 others were wounded due to pervasive terrorist and insurgents assails-- including five suicide attacks and counter terrorism military operations. Meanwhile in India, 96 people were killed and 9 others were injured as Maoist insurgents intensified their attacks in various parts of India mostly targeting civilians and police along with damaging the government installations. Notwithstanding agitation and protests Jammu and Kashmir witnessed a relative stability. A strong political tug of war continued between various political stakeholders in Nepal, a single incident of violence was reported claiming life of a political leader. Calm and peaceful situation continued in Sri Lanka and Maldives. (See Chart 1)

Chart 1: Casualties in South Asia

1-Afghanistan[1]
In Afghanistan the security situation was volatile as various incidents of violence left 377 people-- among them 84 civilians, 271 militants, two soldiers of Afghan National Army (ANA), 20 International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) personnel and 22 police personnel-- killed. Whereas, 204 people were wounded --including 147 civilians, 30 militants, four ISAF and 23 police personnel. This reporting month Taliban militants carried out five suicide attack which targeted Afghan police force and foreign forces, Afghan parliament and Deputy Governor of Kandhar. Meanwhile during their search and hunt operations Afghan National Police (ANP) and Afghan National Army (ANA) apprehended 124 militants and 96 militants—including important militant commanders and an Al-Qaeda leader-- surrendered to security forces as well.

As the schedule plan of draw down of troops is nearing the ISAF and ANA have launched a new military offensive “Operation Omid” against Taliban militants in the south and east of the country.  The operation is being initiated with an underlying motive of winning the hearts and minds of the people.[2] Meanwhile as the ongoing military operations are being intensified, Head of Regional South Command Maj. Gen. James Terry told Pentagon correspondents that "From my standpoint, we will be standing tall here through 2011”. [3]

According to the estimates and feasibility studies of the US Central Command, at least 80,000 new inductions have to be made in Afghan army and police by 2012 to make Afghan security forces self-sufficient in maintenance of security and law and order, prior to transfer of power. Rear Admiral Gregory J. Smith the spokesperson of ISAF Central Headquarters, has maintained that in the days to come the local police formation programme would be extended to 30 different districts of Afghanistan. [4]

2-India[5]
Assorted violent rebel activities of Maoists including killings of civilians, calls for strikes /protests, attacking government installations, abducting the State Armed Force personnel continued in West Bengal, Orissa and Jharkand. [6] During such militant assails, in India, at least 55 people were killed -- including 23 militants and 32 civilians; whereas, 96 others were injured –among them 86 civilians and 10 Central Police Reserve Force (CPRF) personnel.

Police force, during search and hunt operations, arrested 9 suspected militants from various parts of the country including four Maoist rebels. The security forces also recovered arms, ammunition and Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) planted by the militants. Meanwhile 10 Maoists also surrendered to the government.

The Indian government and Army’s moves and strategies against Maoists had been less effective in the past and have resulted in dispersion of the militants.  The police force fears that the Maoist guerrillas under security forces’ pressure are trying to create a new Red corridor through Chhattisgarh, Orissa, Jharkhand and West Bengal. In this regard state police chief Vishwa Ranjan said, “Intelligence inputs indicate the rebels are trying to create the corridor from the area between south Bastar and south Orissa right up to Jharkhand and West Bengal”.[7] The Army’s initiative of opening a new training facility in Maoist hit area of Chhattisgarh under Central Command of Chhattisgarh can be taken as an encouraging step to cope up with this Maoist problem. In this realm Chief of Army Staff General V.K. Singh asked the government to finalize the “Rules of Engagement.”  He said, “We have deliberately stayed out of any commitment to tackle Left Wing Extremism, except for giving advice or training”.[8]

3-Kashmir[9]
In terms of casualties Kashmir remained peaceful during the reporting month. Only one civilian was killed by the Indian Border Security Force (BSF), on suspicion of militant infiltration.  Meanwhile three others --including two civilians and one police official-- were injured during a protest demonstration.  Notwithstanding a steep decline in casualty figure the overall security situation did not show any signs of improvement.

This reporting month Kashmiri people observed the Right of Self-Determination Day to remind the world of --still to be implemented—the United Nation (UN) resolutions on Kashmir even after the passage of more than six decades.  Conversely, the Indian appointed interlocutors --based on their public interaction-- told that only a small population in the state sees implementation of UN resolutions as a solution to the Kashmir issue. The chief interlocutor, Dileep Padgaonkar suggested that there is a need to empower individuals and communities in all the constituent units of the state to avoid its division along ethnic or religious lines”.[10]

As a confidence building efforts, the Indian Home Secretary Gopal K Pillai announced that the Central Government is considering a 25 percent reduction in the strength of security forces deployed in Jammu and Kashmir.[11] While at the same time General Officer Commanding in Chief Northern Command (GOC-in-C), Lt Gen K T Parnaik suggested otherwise saying, “Present situation in Kashmir does not allow cut down of troops and it should be reconsidered”.[12]
This announcement evoked mixed response from the separatist and mainstream political parties of Kashmir.  Jihad Council Chief Syed Sallahudin took it as India’s plot to deceive international community.[13] At political front the Chairman of Hurriyat Conference Mirwaiz Faction,  Mirwaiz Umar Farooq maintained that if gradual demilitarization starts in its true sense, then it is welcome step. Meanwhile the Chairman of Hurriyat Conference (G) Syed Ali Gillani rejected the move. Similarly, the opposition Peoples Democratic Party president Mehbooba Mufti also rejected it saying that people don’t want cosmetic measures and demanded full withdrawal of forces. [14]

4-Nepal[15]
The security situation of Nepal remained under control. Only one incident of violence was reported in the country where an unidentified group killed a Unified CPN (Maoist) cadre in Rautahat.

To bring stability in the uncertain political atmosphere in Nepal, the consensus on the government constitution is of vital importance along with the peace process. Government of Nepal is stepping forward in these essential scenarios. In an important step in the protracted peace process, the chain-of-command of the UCPN (Maoist)’s People’ Liberation Army (PLA) was handed over to the Army Integration Special Committee (AISC). This was done in a formal ceremony held at the Shaktikhor cantonment site in Chitwan. Nepalese Prime Minister (PM) Madhav Kumar described the handover as a significant progress towards concluding the peace process and ending the uncertainty. Dahal lauded the contribution made by the combatants in bringing about the political change in the country. He described the transfer of the PLA command as its willingness to conclude the peace process.[16]

5-Sri Lanka[17]
Sri Lanka continued its peaceful standing with no incident of violence or extremism reported there. As a continuous endeavor to eradicate the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam’s (LTTE) ideological effects from the society, government reintegrated seventy eighty rehabilitated former LTTE rebels to the society.[18]

At the same time the LTTE’s growing global association has made it a continuous matter of concern for the Sri Lankan government. The Chief Government Whip Dinesh Gunawardane said that though LTTE was destroyed in May, 2009, however, its international network was still intact. According to the intelligence reports, he said, the LTTE had acquired 20 ships being used in criminal and illegal activities.[19] During a raid Swiss Police has arrested ten Tamil Tiger rebels, on charges of various criminal activities and money laundering.[20]

Meanwhile a new pattern for passport forging for LTTE locally and internationally surfaced. In Spain arrest of a Pakistani national for allegedly faking passports for the Laskar-e-Taiba (LeT) as well as the LTTE further cemented these assertions.[21] Such continuous reports of the arrests of LTTE cadres from the foreign countries increase the fears of the Sri Lankan government regarding their illicit association with LTTE remnants within the country.

6- Maldives[22]
Maldives, without any terrorism related casualty or incident, remained peaceful. However a reaction came from Islamic Foundation of Maldives (IFM), a local Islamic organization, over the government officials’ positive stance on Maldivians’s involvement in Mumbai terrorist attack in India, thus putting a question mark on the forthcoming Counter-Terrorism Bill. Anti terrorist bill is being looked forth with a hope by the people and government of Maldives. However, at the same time IFM expressed specific concerns about it. With raging sentiments IMF condemned the government’s act of portraying Maldives as a terrorist sheltering state and declaring the president and preachers of IFM as extremists and radicals. IFM announce that, “It will not be intimidated by any threats from the Maldives government, the Zionist Israel and United States to abandon its work to propagate Islam in this country”.[23]

7-Pakistan
See the conflict and security report on Pakistan available at https://san-pips.com/index.php?action=reports&id=172