Khuram Iqbal & Safdar Sial

I. Overview of Conflicts

Caught in various Intera-state and inter-state armed conflicts, South Asia is considered to be the most volatile part of the world. It represents around one and a half billion people or one quarter of the world’s population. The region comprising India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan and the Maldives, has witnessed manifold armed conflicts for the last 60 years. The dimensions of these conflicts are inter-state, religious, ethnic, communal and inter-caste. Just 10 years ago, the numbers of intra-state conflicts were not more then 17. Out of 17, India witnessed 10.1

A. Intra-state Conflicts

India

Armed struggle for emancipation of Indian-held Kashmir by Kashmiri militants has been a major Intra-state concern for India since long. Both India and Pakistan claim Kashmir as an integral part of their territory. In 1948 the then-ruler of the princely state of Jammu and Kashmir, Maharaja Hari Singh acceded to India on condition that the state retains autonomy in all matters except defense, currency and foreign affairs. Government of Pakistan rejected this accession and claimed that being a Muslim Majority state, Kashmir belongs to Pakistan. Up till now death toll has reached to at least 67,000 since a rebellion broke out in the Himalayan region in 1989.1

Long before the British left India, Nagas considered themselves to be independent and petitioned the British to declare for them an independent country. After being snubbed by both the British and the new regime in New Delhi, Nagas, under the leadership of the Naga National Council (NNC), started to fight for independence in 1956.

The Khalistan movement was a movement in Indian Punjab in the 1970s and '80s to create "The Land of the Pure" in all Punjabi-speaking areas contiguous to the borders of Indian Punjab and Pakistani Punjab. A Sarbat Khalsa (general congregation of the Sikh people) was convened at the Akal Takht, the Sikh seat of temporal authority in Amritsar, on January 26, 1986. The gathering passed a resolution (gurmattā) favouring the creation of Khalistan. Khalistan was envisaged by its proponents as a theocratic state dominated by the Sikh community. The present situation in Punjab is generally regarded as peaceful, and the Khalistan movement weakened considerably. The Sikh community maintains its own unique identity and is socially assimilated in cosmopolitan areas. India presently has a Sikh Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, who is highly regarded by both the left and right wing sections of the political spectrum. However, some organizations claim that social divisions and problems still exist in rural areas, but the present situation remains peaceful to a large extent. The movement enjoys some popularity in the fringe elements of the Sikh Diaspora in Europe and the United States who are imbibed with contradictory ideas of "Sikh Religious Nationalism"

4.   Assam

Migration from Bangladesh, a fact that is refuted by that country, was the source of militancy in the state of Assam. A movement that started demanding the deportation of the illegal migrants also witnessed the birth of the militant outfit, the United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) in 1979.

The Bodos, an ethnic group of India’s north east, demand for a separate Bodo state in Assam but this demand is not only opposed by Indian state but also from ultra-Assamese nationalist group that is fighting under ULFA, because it spearheads a movement for a sovereign state of Assam.

Migration of Hindus from the British-ruled East Bengal, which subsequently became East Pakistan and then Bangladesh, to the Indian state Tripura is believed to have been responsible for reducing the indigenous tribal people in the state to minority status; this development sparked a violent backlash among the indigenous people. Starting in 1970, militant groups sprang up in the state demanding the restoration of the tribal rights from the Bengali population, who are accused of dominating the political and economic affairs of Tripura state.

In Mizoram, which was a part of the state of Assam before it was granted statehood in 1987, experienced militancy after the Union government of India failed to respond positively to its demand for assistance during the massive "Mautam Famine." The Mizo National Front (MNF), led by the legendary leader Laldenga, launched the movement on February 28, 1966 and demanded independence for Mizoram.

In the state of Manipur, militancy originated in protest against the forcible merger of the former Manipur Kingdom with India. In 1964, the United National Liberation Front formed with an avowed objective of ending the discrimination against Manipur, which was accorded statehood only in 1972 nearly 23 years after its merger.

Militant groups in Indian north eastern state of Meghalaya are struggling to transform Meghalaya as a province exclusively for the Khasi tribe and free it from ‘domination’ by the Garo tribe. Another objective is to fight against the presence of 'outsiders', as they feel that Khasi youth are deprived of the fruits of development in the state.

Indian Muslims consist of about 12.6 per cent of the total Indian population. Starting from communal riots in 1947, Hindu-Muslim riots have gone on and on, the last one being the horrific anti-Muslim pogrom in Gujarat, in the aftermath of burning of Sabarmati express at Godhra.

Pakistan

Balochistan is geographically the largest province of Pakistan; however it is the least developed. The issue of adequate payment of royalty to the Balochistan provincial government and the tribal leaders in whose territory gas was found, the construction of Gwadar Port where Balochs have their unaddressed concerns and the planned construction of three new cantonments in the province have been cited as the main reasons for the anger of the Baloch nationalists who have spearheaded anti-state militancy in the areas under their control. Baloch nationalist are waging struggle for “Greater Balochistan” including Baloch-inhabited territories in Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan.

This ethnic conflict in Karachi has its roots in the large scale migration on the time of partition in 1947. This conflict involved a triangular fight- between the Sindhis, the central government and the Muhajirs (migrants). Karachi is not only the scene of nationalist or ethnic discords but sectarian and political rifts respectively between Barelvis vs Deobandis/Wahabis and MQM vs PPP; MQM vs Jamat-e-Islami have also claimed several lives during last two or three decades.

Minority Shias make up about 15% of Pakistan's population of 160 million. Tens of thousands of lives had been lost in Pakistan’s sectarian war in the last two decades of the 20th century. The mayhem continues into the 21st century. Seeds of sectarianism were sowed in a well planned move during the military government of General Zia-ul-Haq and it peaked in the aftermath of Afghan Jihad in early 1990s. Most interesting thing about Shia-Sunni conflict in Pakistan is that this conflict has no territorial boundaries and is extended throughout the country. The recent flashpoints of sectarian violence are the Tribal Areas of Pakistan, especially Khyber Agency and Kurram Agency, where armed groups of Lashkar e Islam and Ansarul Islam are at daggers drawn causing significant killings on both sides.

4.  Militancy and Talibanization:

After Soviet-war was over, the militants had started to make their presence felt in the tribal areas of Pakistan. After American attack on Afghanistan, the situation worsened further and different groups of local and foreign militants became active in tribal belt finding safe hideouts along Pak-Afghan border. Having close relations with the local tribesmen, foreign militants (mostly Uzbek, Chechens and Arabs) started to consolidate their position making these areas their stronghold with the help of local Taliban. As Pakistan was a US-ally in this war, these Islamist groups went against Pakistan and started insurgency not only in tribal belt but also in contiguous districts of NWFP. The government carried out various operations to curb them, but due to geographical, constitutional and cultural aspects of the area, their presence could not be extricated. These militants are categorized as Local Taliban and Foreign Taliban. Foreign Taliban are remnants of Al-Qaeda militants in tribal areas from different countries.
       
Bangladesh2

1. Chittagong Hill Tracks

The Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT), an area of 13,295 square kilometers, is the south eastern mountainous region of Bangladesh. When the Bangladeshi government started to colonize the tribal land with large-scale settlement of land-less Bengalis, it proved disastrous to tribal interests in the region. The Jummas (Native people of Chittagong Hill Tracks) reacted to the influx of the settlers by armed resistance.
 
2. Left Wing Extremism

Bangladesh is victim of Left Wing Extremism also in small pockets of the western districts of Bangladesh. Main objective of these elements is to form a socialist republic of Bangladesh. In 2005, 177 deaths were reported in LWE-related violence, compared to just 35 killed in connection with Islamist militancy. LWE in Bangladesh, consisting of the PBCP, Gono Mukti Fouz (GMF), New Biplobi Communist Party (NBCP), remains in a high state of disarray and their activities have been confined to the limits of the western districts of the country such as Satkhira, Khulna, Jessore, Jhenaidah, Magura, Chuadanga.

Sri Lanka3

Tamil Eelam
Tamil people in the island of Sri Lanka have been subjected to an ever widening and deepening oppression by successive Sinhala dominated governments. Moreover the resettlement of a large numbers of Sinhalese in the eastern province was considered as an offensive to the Tamils.

Nepal4

Maoists
The Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (CPN-M), currently a part of government in Nepal, was formed in 1995 following a split in the Communist Party of Nepal-Unity Centre. It resorted to an armed struggle against monarchy on February 13, 1996, by attacking police stations in the Rukum and Rolpa districts in northwestern Nepal and thereby declaring a ‘People’s War’ in Nepal.

Bhutan5

Nepali Migrants
Nepali migrants root the ethnic conflict in Bhutan in the majority-Drukpa community’s fear of domination. In the eyes of the Drupka state in Bhutan, the Nepalese are intruders who do not deserve equal treatment by the state. More than 1.2 lakh refugees have taken shelter in seven camps of Eastern Nepal for the past 15 years, after they were deported or forced to leave Bhutan, from being persecuted by the Royal government following a failed democratic movement in the nineties.

Maldives

Maldives is the only exception that has remained free from any internal or external conflict. A report by European Commission in 2005 rated political risk in the context of trade investment in South Asia showed this smallest country as highly stable.  

B. Inter-state Disputes

Other than intra-state conflicts, countries of the region have bilateral disputes as well, which possess all the potential to turn into inter-state conflicts at any time. India, being the largest country, and geographically centrally located has always tried to maintain its supremacy in the region that has given rise to its differences with most of its smaller neighbors. More interestingly, most of the insurgencies in the region get direct or indirect support from insurgency hit country’s hostile country. This kind of support for intra-state conflicts from any country sows the seeds of Inter-state conflicts. For example India was the major source of support for Bengali separatists of East Pakistan in 1971. Similarly India is believed to be involved in helping Baloch insurgents in Pakistan for moral and logistic support. Pakistan is known to be involved in supporting insurgency in Indian held Kashmir and Khalistan movement of Punjab. Myanmar, Bangladesh and Nepal have always blamed the Indian government for providing shelter to insurgents in North Eastern Indian states. Maoists hold Indian government responsible for supporting Monarch in Nepal.

India and China6

1. Arunachal Pradesh:

Arunachal Pradesh is the eastern most state on India's north-east frontier. Although entirely administered by India, it is claimed by China. Arunachal Pradesh borders the state of Assam to the south and Nagaland to the south- east. Myanmar lies to the east of the state, Bhutan to the west, while the Line of Actual Control separates it from China to the north. Itanagar is the capital of the state.
The China does not recognize the state of Arunachal Pradesh, nor the McMahon Line. It regards all of the territory administered by Arunachal Pradesh as Chinese territory occupied by India, and splits the area nominally among six border counties of the Tibet Autonomous Region: (from west to east) Cona, Lhunze, Nang, Mainling, Medog, and Zayu. India does not recognize any of these claims, and considers the state to be an integral part of the country.
The name South Tibet (Zangnan) is often used by Chinese sources to refer to the disputed region. At the same time, both the China and India have defined a Line of Actual Control, and it is widely believed that this dispute is not likely to result in actual hostilities. Arunachal Pradesh was administered as the North East Frontier Agency (NEFA) until 1972, when it became the Union Territory of Arunachal Pradesh. During the 1962 Sino-Indian War, the China captured most of the NEFA, but the Chinese soon declared victory and voluntarily withdrew back to the McMahon Line for further negotiations. The NEFA was given full statehood by India in November 1986 after taking into consideration the security situation in the east and Sino-Indian relations.

2. Aksai Chin:

Aksai Chin is administered by China and claimed by India. Aksai Chin was historically part of the Himalayan Kingdom of Ladakh until Ladakh was annexed by Kashmir in the 19th century. It was subsequently absorbed into British India by the 1904 treaty between Tibet and British India which led to the McMahon Line demarcation agreed to by Tibet and India in the early decades of 20th century. China, which at that time did not recognize Tibet's Sovereignty but rather considered Tibet to be part of China, did not accept the agreement reached between Tibet and British India. Accordingly China refused to recognize the entire McMahon line (or, for that matter, any treaty signed by Tibet). One of the main causes of the Sino-Indian War of 1962 was India's discovery of a road China had built through the region, which India considers its territory. Aksai Chin is currently under the administration of the People's Republic of China, with the vast majority of it as a part of Hotan County, in the primarily Muslim Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, to which it was transferred by China from Tibet.

3. Trans Korakaram Tract:

The Trans-Korakaram Tract, an area of nearly 5,800 sq Km that India claims, was transferred by a border agreement from the Pakistani-administered Northern Areas to China in 1963 with the proviso that the settlement was subject to the final solution of the Kashmir dispute. Pakistan says that it was a no man's un-demarcated border land; hence no question arises of its being transferred. However the transfer is disputed by India which claims the Tract as part of Jammu and Kashmir state.

India and Pakistan7

Considering Pakistan (Second largest country of the region) a challenge against its hegemony, India has developed numbers of disputes ranging from Kashmir to Siachen, Sir Creek and some other border and water disputes. This is the reason why the issue of conflicts in South Asia is widely associated with the two major countries of the region, India and Pakistan’s International dimension.

The root of most conflicts and the mutual hatred lies in Kashmir and in the manner in which its political alignment was decided by the two countries following partition in 1947. Immediately afterwards war broke out between the two nations over the mountainous region of Kashmir. The war lasted for more than a year with both nations making significant advances into each other's territory. As the war was ended by a UN ceasefire, India had managed to secure just under three-fifths of Kashmir and importantly the most fertile part of it including the Kashmir Valley. Between November 1986 and March 1987, India conducted Operation Brasstacks. This military exercise - the largest of its kind in South Asia - raised eyebrows in Pakistan and it was feared that it would lead to another war between the two neighbours. Tensions were high again in 1990 after militancy in Indian-administered Kashmir greatly increased. A terrorist attack on the Indian Parliament on December 13, 2001, blamed by India on the Pakistan-based terrorist organizations Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed, prompted the 2001-2002 India-Pakistan standoff and brought both sides close to war.
Eventually both the countries have rested on bilateral dialogue under ‘peace process’ to resolve Kashmir and other disputes.

2.  Sir Creek:

The Sir Creek is a 96 km strip of water disputed between India and Pakistan in the Rann of Kutch marshlands. The creek, which opens up into the Arabian Sea, divides the Kutch region of the Indian state of Gujarat with the Sindh province of Pakistan. The long-standing dispute hinges in the actual demarcation "from the mouth of Sir Creek to the top of Sir Creek, and from the top of Sir Creek eastward to a point on the line designated on the Western Terminus". From this point onwards, the boundary is unambiguously fixed as defined by the Tribunal Award of 1968. The dispute lies in the interpretation of the boundary line between Kutch and Sindh as depicted in a 1914 and 1925 map. At that time, the region was a part of Bombay Presidency of undivided India. After India's independence in 1947, Sindh became a part of Pakistan while Kutch remained a part of India. Pakistan lays claim to the entire creek as per paras 9 and 10 of the Bombay Government Resolution of 1914 signed between then the Government of Sindh and Rao Maharaj of Kutch.
Since 1969, there have been many rounds of talks between the two nations, without a breakthrough. Steps to resolve the dispute include: Allocation, Delimitation, Demarcation and Administration.  Since neither side has conceded ground, India has proposed that the maritime boundary could be demarcated first, as per the provisions of Technical Aspects of Law of Sea (TALOS). However, Pakistan has staunchly refused the proposal on the grounds that the dispute should be resolved first. Pakistan has also proposed that the two sides go in for international arbitration, which India has flatly refused. India maintains that all bilateral disputes should be resolved without the intervention of third-parties. Sir Creek dispute is also on agenda of peace process between the two countries.

3. Siachen Glacier:

The Siachen Glacier lies south of the great watershed that separates China from the Indian subcontinent in the extensively glaciated portion of the Korakaram that is sometimes called the ‘Third Pole’. The glacier is also the highest battleground on earth, where India and Pakistan have fought intermittently since April 13, 1984. Both countries maintain permanent military personnel in the region at a height of over 6,000 meters. The site is a prime example of mountain warfare. The glacier's melting waters are a major source of the river Indus, a vital water source. The conflict in Siachen stems from the confusion in the improperly demarcated territory on the map beyond the map coordinate known as NJ9842. The 1949 Karachi Agreement and the 1972 Shimla Agreement did not clearly mention who controlled the glacier, merely stating that from the NJ9842 location the boundary would proceed "thence north to the glaciers." During the cold war in the 1960s and 1970s, however, the United States Defense Mapping Agency (now National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency) began, with no legal justification or any boundary documentation, showing an international boundary on their maps available to the public and pilots as proceeding from NJ9842 east-northeast to the Korakaram Pass at 5,534 m (18,136 ft.) on the China border. Numerous governmental and private cartographers and atlas producers followed suit. This resulted in cartographically "awarding" the entire 2,700 square kilometers (1,040 square miles) Siachen area to Pakistan (a US ally during the cold war). Indian government and military took note. Prior to 1984 neither India nor Pakistan had any permanent presence in the area.

Kargil War:

Pakistani troops (allegedly with support of Kashmiri insurgents) captured Indian army posts in 1999. Indian Army retaliated and recaptured the posts. International pressure forced Pakistan to back down.  Siachen remains a serious dispute between two countries that have fought on its heights in 1990, 1995, 1996 and then in 1999 (Kargil War).

4. Water Disputes:

The issue for distribution of waters between the two countries was amicably resolved in 1960 under the Indus Basin Treaty. The treaty speaks of water utilization of diverse rivers like Beas, Ravi, Sutlej, Indus, Chenab and Jehlum giving Pakistan control on waters of Jehlum, Chenab and Indus rivers whereas control of river flows of Sutlej, Beas and Ravi was given to India. Indo-Pak water disputes relate to construction of Wullar and Buglihar dams on river Jehlum and Chenab respectively by India.

Wullar Barrage:

In 1985, India started construction of a dam on Jehlum River in occupied Kashmir. The Wullar Barrage, 30 kilometers (19 miles) north of India held-Kashmir's summer capital Srinagar, violates Indus Basin water sharing treaty by affecting the flow of water and threatening irrigation and power projects downstream in Pakistan. Pakistan has a pragmatic and logical viewpoint that by allowing India to control the flow of the Jehlum water through storage would pose a serious threat to Pakistan; negatively impacting downstream irrigation, power generation and other water projects. Due to these logical and legal reasons Pakistan wants India to scrap this project who contends the barrage would help regulate the flow of flood waters. Construction of the barrage was halted in 1987 following protests by Pakistan and the dispute is part of composite dialogue between the two countries.

Baglihar Dam:

Another dam on the Chenab River is also being challenged by Pakistan.
Islamabad says construction of the Baglihar Dam, a 330-megawatt hydroelectric project, will affect water flows to Pakistan. The Indus Basin Treaty forbids India from affecting the flow of rivers feeding Pakistan.

Uri-II & Kishan-Ganga Hydropower Projects:

Pakistan is demanding of India to stop its work on the Uri-II and Kishan-Ganga Hydropower projects claiming it, again, a violation of the Indus Basin Treaty and India, according to the treaty, could not make a gated structure on the Uri-II. Gated structures are aimed at diverting the waters for which India was not authorized. The diversion of waters by India can affect some hydropower development plans in Pakistan, such as Neelum-Jehlum project. It can also affect agriculture in some areas of Azad Kashmir. India says that since Pakistan is not developing its hydro resources, the country does not take the diversion issue seriously.

India and Sri Lanka

In the past, Indian government has been a very strong supporter of Tamil insurgents in Sri Lanka given the large population of Tamils in Tamil Nadu state of Southern India. In 1987, when the Sri Lankan government went offensive against Tamil rebels, Indian government came to rescue Tamils. In July 1987, India decided to send the Indian Peace Keeping Force to Sri Lanka under the agreement that was aimed at disarming Tamil rebels and bringing peace. But the majority Sinhalese community of Sri Lanka took it as an intervention in the internal issues of Sri Lanka and an attempt by Indian government to maintain its supremacy over Sri Lanka. Relation between the two countries deteriorated when the Sri Lankan government demanded the withdrawal of Indian Peace-keeping Forces in 1989.

India and Nepal10

More precisely tensions between India and Nepal have its roots in economic reasons. Economically Nepal is mostly dependent on India. Other than economics, Nepali Maoists (Ex-rebels) have always blamed India for supporting kingship and suppressing democratic forces in Nepal.
-   Kalapani district of India is claimed by Nepal and
-   Nawalparasi district of Nepal is claimed by India.

India and Bangladesh

Till the late 1990s, India's main concerns with Bangladesh involved the massive illegal migration, which among other things radically changed the demography of neighboring Indian states like Assam. In this context construction of the fence by India along the 4,096-km Bangladesh border has been a contentious issue for several years. India has been arguing that the fence is meant to check illegal migration, smuggling and curb infiltration. Because, after Kashmiri militants, the group that has troubled India a lot is United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) operating in Assam. And Indian Authorities have been blaming that ULFA has training camps in Chittagong, Bangladesh, a claim the latter has consistently refuted. 
The major areas of dispute between the two countries are:

II. Impact of Afghan war on South Asia

Though geographically Afghanistan is located in South East Asia but the constant instability, internal conflicts and invasions in Afghanistan have created disastrous impacts on South Asia. Soviet invasion in late 70s and then Afghan war after 9/11 attacks introduced new dimensions and motivations for existing and newly emerging armed conflicts in South Asian countries. Not only Pakistan, but Bangladesh and India too, have to face Islamic radical movements after the US attack on Afghanistan. Post 9/11 and the United States-led War on Terror, many fundamentalist outfits under the American scanner found Pakistan and Bangladesh easy countries to disappear in. Different Jihadi organizations turned towards Pakistan, after the later took a U-turn on Afghanistan and forged partnership with America in War on Terror.   Evidence proves that after the ouster of Mullah Omer from Afghanistan he issued orders to Islamic militants of Afghanistan and Pakistan to attack on western interests in Pakistan to exert pressure on Pakistani government to get away from siding with America. Jihadi outfits that were operating in Afghanistan, Kashmir changed their operational areas and started to follow the orders issued by Taliban commander Mullah Omer. Consequently tribal areas of Pakistan emerged as a heaven for Afghan militants and Pakistan got another war front to confront with. On the other side, in Bangladesh, which was considered to be a moderate democracy, several Jihadi groups with a motive to bring about an Islamic revolution in country, emerged on the surface. The bombings and growing intolerance are part of a concerted attempt to replace the parliamentary system of governance in Bangladesh with Islamic law, or the Shariah. Though, militant groups with an Islamic agenda in Bangladesh existed even before but not so actively. The main jihadi groups active in Bangladesh are the Harkatul Jihad-al-Islami, the Jagrata Muslim Janata Bangladesh, Ahle Hadith Andolon Bangladesh and the Jama'atul Mujahideen Bangladesh. All of them are known to have close ties with Al-Qaeda, Pakistani, Indian and Kashmiri Jihadi outfits. Before 9/11 neighboring India was just accusing Bangladesh for providing shelter to militants active in India Northeast, but then Bangladesh came under fire for “exporting” Muslim fundamentalism and terrorism to the northeast with the Jama’atul Mujahideen playing a key role in such activities.

III. Impact of Conflicts on Regional Stability

Despite possessing all the essentials, necessary for progress, prosperity and development, South Asia lags behind its larger Asian neighborhoods, in terms of economic and social advancement. South Asia’s share in the global income is just 7 per cent while one-fifth of the world’s population and 43 per cent of the world’s poor live here. The region is home to about 1.5 billion people, more than 400 million of whom live on less than a dollar a day. In a direct or indirect way, Inter-state and Intra-state conflicts impinge on the regional economy. All the South Asian countries are mostly dependent on tourism to earn foreign exchange. And an atmosphere of uncertainty haunts foreign tourists to visit beautiful valleys of Kashmir, World’s highest mountains of Nepal, World’s oldest civilizations and Northern areas of Pakistan, “The Land of Thunder Dragon” Bhutan, jade forests of Bangladesh, and the country with a magnificent culture and history, India. Tourists’ arrivals keep on falling down year by year. In Nepal, the Tourist Board said, tourist arrivals dropped by four percent in 2005 and this year is considered to be the worst in a decade because of King Gyanendra staged a coup and imposed emergency rule in the same year. But after the accomplishment of orange revolution in April 2006, tourism is looking good in Nepal. Whenever there are little signs of peace and resolution in the region this mainstay of South Asia’s economy starts to show encouraging outputs. The industry exemplifies the problem with Sri Lanka's economy - it was doing well since a ceasefire was agreed between the government and the Tiger rebels in 2002; there has been an economic growth of between 4% and 6% a year. A unilateral cease-fire declared by Maoist rebels in September 2004 brought tens of thousands of tourists flocking back into the picturesque country in the latter part of the year. Due to this fear of uncertainty, most of the skilled and qualified youth fro south Asian countries prefer to go abroad for its career building. This trend is positive in a way to earn remittances but respective countries become deprived of their skilled labor on other hand. For example when democratic movement was on its peak in Nepal in 2006 the number of people who left the country for employment purpose recorded a robust 50 percent rise. During the period, 93,948 persons left the country for 14 different labor destinations around the world.
The South Asian inter-state and Intra-state armed conflicts proved to be a main hindrance to develop regional cooperation that is essential to obtain economic growth. A recent report by SAARC Business Conclave in Mumbai, the World Bank and the Chamber of Commerce and Industry (SCCI) called South Asia “the world’s least integrated region”. According to the report, intra-regional trade is less than 2 percent of GDP, compared to more than 20 percent for East Asia. The cost of trading across borders in South Asia is one of the highest in the world. Energy trade in the region is low. Only India, Bhutan and Nepal currently trade electricity. Only 7 percent of international telephone calls are regional, compared to 71 percent for East Asia. South Asia also ranks the last among all world regions in terms of road density, rail-lines and mobile teledensity per capita.
Other than economic development, armed conflicts intrude the lives of common people or civilians in a drastic way. After some solid initiatives that have been mutually taken up by the governments of South Asian countries in recent years it has become quite difficult for militants and insurgents to confront the security apparatus face-to-face. Ultimately civilians are becoming the victim of tussle between states and armed groups.  Likewise civilians are the main victims in war-torn Afghanistan.
Human Rights abuse has become “Legalized” in the name of patriotism or saving the country from insurgents or rebels. UNICEF and other international organizations have been criticizing different insurgent groups in South Asia for recruiting child soldiers. Large numbers of widows and orphans in the conflict-hit regions are another outcome of inflexible standoffs between state and armed groups.  Situation of children and child soldiers in South Asia has been deteriorating since the last decades.
Since the violent Maoist insurgency began (in Nepal) in 1996, many innocent children have been killed. Reports show that more than 4,000 children have become orphans due to the ongoing conflict. According to a UNICEF report in 2005, more than 400 children lost their lives in the course of the armed conflict in Nepal. The LTTE used child soldiers widely in their fight for a Tamil homeland. UNICEF recorded 1,280 cases of children being taken into the rebel group in 2003, falling to 675 in 2005. In January 2006, it logged 29 cases and 14 were reported for February, a drastic fall from a recent spike in July when UNICEF says the Tigers took 155 children.
  
IV. Changing Perspectives

Since the late 2001, South Asia, on the one hand has been facing a sudden growth in the intensity of conflicts and on the other hand witnessing newly emerged conflicts with new dimensions. The post 9/11 era has also influenced the transformation process including the nature of conflicts and its objectives in its peaceful culmination or violent escalation. Though in the recent past ( more specifically post-9/11 era) all the governments of respective countries in South Asia have come up with different peaceful ways of conflict resolution that have created an optimist approach to deal the issues. But on the other side innovated trends and latest tactics have been introduced by the militant organizations operating in the region. Different militant groups are forging new operational coordination or strategic alliance in their separate fight for their cause.  ULFA's growing links with Bangladeshi Islamists and jihadist elements in the area are increasingly coming to light. The April 9 (2007) attack timed with Singh's visit to Assam marked the group’s first-ever suicide bombing, a tactic that was pioneered by the Tigers (a non-Islamist, majority Hindu group) and has been frequently employed by Islamist militants. In a recent conference that was organized by "Council of Khalistan", NSCN general secretary Mr Muivah, in his lengthy message to the conference that was read out by a member of the Naga Support Centre in the UK, spoke of the need for Khalistan, Nagaland and Kashmir to unite for achieving sovereignty for their peoples. He assured the Khalistan council of the full support of the NSCN, stating: "We stand with you in calling for those responsible for the genocide in Punjab over the last 25 years or so to be brought to justice." In the recent past when Punjab crises were on its peak, a military nexus between Khalistan and Kashmir militants seemed to have existed. In the early months of 2007 nexus between different insurgency movements in India and other political and militant groups was revealed as 14 Myanmar nationals were arrested in Kashmir on Feb 19. Moreover a report by US think tank Strategic Foresight Inc (Stratfor) exposed ULFA –Dhaka nexus. It said that Cash-rich ULFA has funded at least 15 election candidates belonging to both the Bangladesh Nationalist Party and the Awami League. Moreover in January 2007, three Nepali Maoists were arrested from Kashmir and Law enforcement agencies were investigating Maoists-Lashkar-e Taiba nexus. 
Year 2006 passed as a decisive one for two major conflicts of the region, Maoists in Nepal and Baloch insurgency in Pakistan. Two of these conflicts observed high level of intensity as the people of Nepal launched a pro-democratic movement against king that was later joined by the Maoists and the military government in Pakistan was in no mood to sit cool until the elimination of Baloch insurgency to clean the way for construction of Asia’s most important Gawadar port. In April 2006 People of Nepali people came out victorious against years old Monarchy and Pakistani government break the backbone of insurgency by killing veteran Baloch Leader Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti on August 26, 2006. An overview of changed dimensions of armed conflicts is as following:

a. Kashmir: Signs of Optimism

“Pakistan and India are coming closer to a solution of Kashmir dispute”. This is not only what the foreign ministers of both India and Pakistan reiterated several times in recent days but ground seems to be ready for an expected solution of Kashmir dispute. A change on Kashmir front seems inevitable. For the first time in the history of Kashmir conflict, militancy in valley went down to zero during initial months of current year 2007. Indian home ministry also acknowledged a sharp decline in militancy and infiltration especially after April 2006. According to the ministry’s annual report, the number of violent incidents in 2006 fell by 16 percent from the year before. Deaths of civilian and security forces decreased by 30 percent and 20 percent, respectively, while infiltration levels declined marginally by four per cent. According to a report by Christian Science Monitor, no more than 1,400 fighters are left in the Kashmir Valley, compared to an estimated figure of 14,000 in the 1990s. These positive circumstances are indirectly convincing Indian authorities to rethink about the fate of 600,000 Indian troops in the valley. But Indian Prime Minister’s vision of troop withdrawal has been facing a strong opposition not only from his own party circles but the large sections of Indian Army have also stood against demilitarization issue of Kashmir. Just five days after Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh constituted committees to look into the demands of demilitarization, J&K Governor Lieutenant General (retd) SK Sinha strongly opposed it and emphasized that the presence of the armed forces in the state is a necessity. On the other hand two major militant organizations in Kashmir, Hizbul Mujahideen and Lashkar-e-Taiba have unanimously declared that demilitarization is the only way to make the India-Pakistan peace process “more meaningful.

b. Nepal Victim of Religious and Ethnic Fundamentalism

Nepal for the first time in its history is facing the Hindu extremism and Madheshi ethnic unrest. After the accomplishment of Orange Revolution in April 2006, expectations were sky-scraping for a peaceful and democratic Nepal. Despite all the concerns expressed by US and India, ex-rebels now became a part of government which is not in the interests of the both countries mentioned at all. Although both the US and India shown a little flexibility over this new political scenario in Nepal but ground realities don’t support this changed stance of both countries. As soon as political process is moving, some uncertain and unexpected incidents and trends are emerging in on socio-political scene of Nepal. In the very recent past, Nepal was considered as a multi-ethnic and religiously diverse society and the question of ethnicity and religion never bothered Nepali people. But right after people’s revolution and consequently the abolishing of kingship, southern part of Nepal, Terai suddenly emerged as a battle ground between Madheshis and Nepalese, some militant outfits like Madhesi Janadhikar Forum (MJF), Madhesi People's Rights Forum MPRF, Janatantrik Terai Mukti Morcha (JTMM) (Jwala and Goit) came up with ethnic agendas, Nepal Defence Army emerged as first ever militant outfit in Nepal with Hindu agenda. Political attacks are flaring up. All of these scattered elements don’t have any common agenda and are working on different lines. But only impact they have created yet, is uncertainty and mistrust over current secular status of Nepal and ongoing political process.
Incidents of day to day clashes between newly emerging militant outfit and ex-rebels (Maoists) are increasing are slowly but constantly dragging Nepal into the unending depths of civil war. Though there are lots of efforts being made by Koirala government to make king a part of history but the “planed ground realities” emphasize on the fact that king has not given up yet.

c. Khalistan after Jagjit Singh Chohan

Dr Jagjit Singh Chohan, the pioneer of Khalistan movement in India died in his Hoshiarpur village on April 04, 2007 after a heart attack. Jagjit Singh Chohan claimed to be an “exiled president of Khalistan”. He sought political asylum in UK in 1980 and was allowed to return back to India by the Punjab and Haryana high court on May 29, 2001. In March 2006, Mr Chohan was re-arrested on charges of sedition in his village home in Hoshiarpur district.
He was the man who floated the Khalistani currency and set up a radio station for Khalistan t in the Golden Temple complex. He was among few Sikh Nationalists who persuaded the struggle for Sikh independence for nearly four decades. Though experts believe that Khalistan Movement became an old story even before the death of Chohan but Khalistan Council, a conglomerate of various Sikh organizations, reasserted their demand for a separate Sikh state and vowed that the problem was not over. Khalistan was the idea of the first guru of the Sikhs -- Guru Nanak. This has been continuing in this land for so many hundred years. And every new generation has been contributing to this idea. After a long time pro-Khalistan slogans were raised publicly in India during the current stand off between Sikhs and Dera Sacha Sauda sect. The two Sikh communities came in front when the founder of Sacha Sauda sect appeared in attire claimed to resemble that adopted by Guru Gobind Singh, the five high priests of the Sikh faith.

d. Sri Lanka after LTTE’s Air Strike

The Cease Fire Agreement (CFA) signed between the Ranil Wickramasinghe government and the LTTE in 2002, completed its five years on February 20. Different political fronts urged President Mahinda Rajapakse to abrogate the Norwegian mediated Cease Fire Agreement. Especially the hardliner Buddhist organization National Bhikku Front (NBF) staged a Satyagraha (sit in) in Colombo for the abrogation of the ceasefire agreement.
At the start of the year 2007 analysts and politicians were of the view that fighting in Sri Lanka is expected to intensify in the New Year in the absence of fresh moves by peace-brokers to bring the two sides back to the negotiating table. The same happened as the year in Sri Lanka started with military campaign against the rebel’s strongholds in the east.  The two-and-half month long campaign, that involved Special Forces, Commandos and the infantry with ground action backed by the air force still going successful as Security Forces, consolidated the coastal stretch of Vakarai, Kathiraveli and Verugal resulting in the collapse of the last Tiger enclave in the East. On January 20 2007, the army took control of a main road along the east coast connecting its two main towns, Batticaloa and Trincomalee for the first time in 11 years. But Sri Lankan forces had to cool off when “Innovated” Tamil tigers came up with a latest innovation in the history of militant movements worldwide. They launched first ever aerial attack on March 26 targeting the main military base of the Sri Lanka Air Force (SLAF) on the outskirts of the Colombo.

e. India’s North East

At one point, more than 120 militant groups operated in India's northeast and more than 50,000 people have lost their lives to insurgency in the northeast since India’s independence in 1947. In recent years, the Indian government has had some success in achieving stability in the region, using tactics from negotiations to military operations to root out militants. While military operations have achieved only limited results, it is the dialogue for peace with the militant outfits that has brought some order to the northeastern region. Nevertheless, the region remains a potential tinderbox.
On September 24, 2006, the Centre withdrew its ceasefire with United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) and the army resumed its operations against the outlawed group. Consequently on September 27 ULFA-nominated People's Consultative Group (PCG) pulled out of the peace process in Assam, accusing the Centre of making "ridiculous demands". These standoffs between the two sides resulted in the deaths of at least 92 Hindi speaking migrants in Assam. This time, the better option for central government, was not another ceasefire agreement but to focus on the breeding lands of the Northeastern separatists; Bangladesh, Myanmar and Burma. Indian Foreign secretary frequently visited the neighboring countries to pursue the worsening security situation involving United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA), United National Liberation Front (UNLF) and some other militant outfits. Due to this political pressure the governments of Bangladesh, Myanmar and Burma were compelled to take strict steps against the militant’s hideouts in the respective countries.
For the first time the government of Bangladesh admitted the presence of ULFA and vowed not to shelter Indian separatists12. Burma launched military operations against Indian separatists based in the country's western Sagaing Division; Myanmar authorities raided National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN (K) HQ in Myanmar.
The ceasefire between the Naga rebels and federal government that first took effect in June 1997 was re-extended in 2006.13 And currently New Delhi is holding several rounds of talks with NCNH leadership for the renewal of ceasefire agreement for upcoming days.
Bodo militant organization, National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB), after signing ceasefire agreement wit central government in India is now engaged in factional clashes with Bodo Liberation Tiger (BLT), another outfit struggling for independence of Bodoland. The BLT was a banned Bodo militant group, which was disbanded in year 2003 after it had signed a peace accord with the government of India. The leaders of the disbanded BLT are now in the seat of power, Bodoland Territorial Autonomous District Council (BTADC), which was created as per the provision of the accord signed with the BLT. The NDFB is a proscribed rival Bodo insurgent group, which is at present in ceasefire with the government of India for the past 18 months and the actual peace negotiation is yet to take off.
At present, the Union government has ongoing ceasefire agreements with six militant groups in different states. The oldest one with the N.S.C.N.-I.M. dates back to July 25, 1997 and the other one with its rival outfit the N.S.C.N.-K has lasted since April 28, 2001. In Assam, the following organizations have ceasefire agreements with the government: U.P.D.S. since January 1, 2004, the U.P.D.S. since May 23, 2002 and the N.D.F.B. since May 25, 2005. Similarly, in the state of Meghalaya, the Achik National Volunteer Council has had a ceasefire agreement with the government since July 23, 2004.

f. Balochistan after Akbar Bugti

During the year 2006, Balochistan Liberation Front and the Bugti Militia were blamed by the government for carrying out 403 terrorist attacks in Balochistan that killed 277 people and injured 676 others.14 Pakistani forces killed veteran Baloch leader Akbar Bugti on August 26, 2006 in Kohlu. He was the head of Jamhoori Watan Party (JWP) that was considered to be the largest Nationalist party of Balochistan.
 JWP started to lose its political power as many important leaders left the party after the demise of Nawab Akbar Bugti.15 Among the “three controversial Sardars in Balochistan” second one Nawab Akhter Mengel, the head of Balochistan National Party (BNP), was arrested on November 28, 2006. After the arrest of Party leader Mengal, Police and law enforcement agencies launched crack down on Baloch nationalists and hundreds of BNP members were arrested in the start of year 2007.16
Key commanders of Baloch Liberation Army, the militant outfit struggling for “Greater Balochistan”, took shelter in Afghanistan;17 later it was admitted by governor Kandhar in May 2007. Barhamdakh Bugti, an important Baloch separatist and grand-son of Nawab Akbar Bugti is known to be in India and he is preparing for another Baloch rebellion.18 Addressing to a telephonic address to the local journalists of Balochistan he vowed to launch a renewed armed struggle against central government and said that the time for ceasefire agreements and talks have passed.19 After the president Musharaf offered amnesty to Baloch separatists in his visit to Balochistan in December 2006 and respectively in May 2007, numbers of militancy related incidents are decreasing day by day. Many resisting commanders from Muree tribes have also surrendered.

g. Talibanization and Sectarianism in FATA

After the fall of Taliban in Afghanistan, their radical supporters, particularly in the tribal areas (FATA) and elsewhere in the North-West Frontier Province and in Baluchistan rose to challenge the writ of the Pakistani state. These areas bordering Afghanistan are now becoming progressively Talibanized. This radical atmosphere has given rise to many internal conflicts and clashes in Federally Administrated Tribal Areas (FATA) of Pakistan. Dimensions of these newly emerged conflicts are mostly sectarian and inter-tribal.
Shias are 15 to 20 percent of the total population, with significant concentrations in Quetta in Balochistan, Kurram Agency in the Tribal Areas, and Gilgit in the Northern Areas20. After the fall of Taliban in Afghanistan, the neighboring tribal agency of Aurakzai and the cities of Bannu and Kohat in the NWFP became “Talibanised” by Sunni extremists. The Kurram Agency has been the hotbed of sectarianism since 1985 when a large number of Afghan refugees, mostly belonging to the Sunni sect, settled there, which changed the demography of the area. Particularly in Parachinar, the headquarters of the Kurram Agency, the Sunnis now outnumbered the Shias. The influx of Sunni Afghans having close ideological proximity with the Taliban fanned sectarianism in the area, abetted in no small measure by the dissemination of hate material, biased educational syllabi and provocative sermons. The most significant role in the entrenchment of sectarianism in Parachinar was played by the Zia ul Haq government’s pro-Sunni orientation and its support to the Deobandis’ hard version of Islam. The Kurram Agency has since witnessed a number of sectarian clashes, in which according to one estimate over 1,200 people have lost their lives. Recent sectarian clashes in April 2007 (marked by Shia-Sunni sects) claimed at least 50 lives21. Till April 6, Kurram and Mohmand were the only two peaceful tribal agencies while the rest of FATA, federally administered tribal areas, was in a state of conflict. On April 6 the authorities clamped curfew over Kurram too, following clashes between the rival Sunni and Shia sects. The agency is considered to be one of the most sensitive parts of the country where sectarian sentiments are quite volatile and a minor incident may result in the killing of dozens of people from both sides.
Sectarian rifts between two rival groups in Khyber Agency (Lashkar-e-Islam & Ansar-ul-Islam) also caused a breakdown in law and order in the agency.  Sectarian clashes marking Deobandis from the both sides resulted in the death of over 379 people and injuring 307 others in Khyber agency during 200622 while a large number of people were killed over a similar issue in Orakzai some months back.
In the same month of April 2007, when sectarian clashes were on its peak in Kurram Agency, neighboring South Waziristan was observing a low-intensity war between Uzbek and local Wazir tribes. “Mujahideen-e-Haq”, under the leadership of Mullah Nazir waged Jihad against Qari Tahir Yuldeshiv (Head of Al-Qaeda affiliated Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan), who took shelter in Wana after Afghan war) and his supporters in Wana and its neighborhoods.  Local tribe accused foreigners (Uzbeks) that Tahir Yuldeshiv and his Jihadists companion were involved in these troublesome and anti-Pakistan activities and they have killed almost 800 people including 200 locals, 80 Turkish and Punjabis, Arabs and Uzbek Mujahideen, who left his group. Local tribes held Qari Yuldeshiv responsible for manifestation in the name of Jihad. This war continued through out two weeks, local tribes drove Uzbeks out of Waziristan, some 167 people were killed, among them most of were Uzbeks.  (7-6-2007)


1“1,086 people killed in Kashmir last year” Daily Times, Thursday, February 02, 2006 
2“ The Fraud Continues” Bibhu Prasad Routray, South Asia Intelligence Review
3“India given proof of RAW hand in Balochistan” The Post, Lahore, June 01-2006
4Amir Rana, “ Jihad: After 9/11” page # 32, Fact Publishers, Lahore 
5“Human Development in South Asia 2006” report prepared by the Mahbub ul Haq Development Centre
6: “Asian civilians increasingly at risk from bombings” Daily Times, July 13, 2006  
7: PIPS Database
8“Kashmir Gov defends army presence” Daily News & Analysis Thursday, April 05, 2007.
9“No more than 1,400 fighters left in IHK” Daily Times Tuesday, April 03, 2007  
10 “Bid to revive ‘Khalistan’ at UK meet” Daily News Analysis Friday, May 11, 2007.
11 “A rising tide of hate” Editorial The Hindu May 22, 2007
12“Bangladesh admits ULFA presence” New Age,  Friday, April 06,2007 
13 “Naga separatists extend ceasefire”  By Subir Bhaumik, 31 January 2006 BBC News, Calcutta
14“Pakistan Security Report 2006” by PIPS
15:Sunday Magazine, Daily Mashriq, Peshawar, November 2006
16 “Daily Express” Lahore, November 29,2006
17 “Daily Insaf” Lahore, November 23,2006
18“Daily Nawa-e-Waqt” Novmber 30,2006
19 “ Daily Azadi” Quetta, December 17, 2006
20“Sectarian War: Pakistan’s Sunni-Shia Violence and its links to the Middle East” by Khalid Ahmad Woodrow Wilson Centre
21“Parachinar Violence” The Post, April 10-2007