South Asia Conflict Report: July 2008

Muhammad Azam

The outcome of the 15th SAARC Summit held in Colombo on August 2-3 is a sufficient evidence that South Asian leadership faces a mega challenge of taking the region along the road to peace and prosperity. The Summit was the most significant event of the month in the region. The association, however, will remain impotent unless it addresses bilateral issues and disputes as well.

Indian and Pakistani borders and the Line of Control (LoC) experienced bloodletting from time to time. In addition, Indian forces also killed six Bangladeshi soldiers at two different occasions. Missile attacks from Afghanistan into Pakistani territories took many lives during the month. Civil War in Sri Lanka caused wide-scale death and destruction.

Bomb attack against the Indian embassy, on July 7, in Kabul caused a political stir among the governments of India, Pakistan and Afghanistan. On the last day of the month a bicycle bomb exploded outside Pakistani consulate in Kabul. It seems that politics of expediency seems to be in action.

Ensuing exchange of bitter statements between the governments of Pakistan and Afghanistan, and the governments of Pakistan and India did much damage to already worsening regional environment. According to a Middle Eastern writer, Karzai “should not take extreme steps that will complicate relations with Pakistan. The move to suspend meetings with Pakistan on border and regional economic cooperation is not the right move as that can exacerbate tensions.”
Armed conflicts in the region caused 3,218 casualties in the region during the month. Detail is given in Table 1.
Table 1: Casualties Caused by Armed Conflicts in South Asia during July 2008

Graph 1: Casualties Caused by Armed Conflicts in South Asia during July 2008

In the following table, casualties caused by armed conflicts since March 2008 in the region are shown.

Table 2: Casualties Caused by Armed Conflicts in South Asia since March 2008

Graph 2: Casualties Caused by Armed Conflicts in South Asia since March 2008
The figures show that the lethality of the conflicts in the region continues and there is no improvement in this regard.

INDIA
Total 260 casualties were reported – 94 deaths and 166 injuries – in India in July. July 25 and 26 were the two horrific days when twenty-five bomb blasts took place in India.  On the 25th, eight low intensity bombs blasted in Bangalore, and, on the next day, 17 blasts took place in Ahmedabad. These blasts resulted into 148 casualties in total. In another bloody incident, Maoists killed 20 policemen on July 17 in Orissa’s Malkangiri district. It is observed, “While expanding their influence in the countryside, Maoist rebels are spreading to cities, including the capital New Delhi, through a web of front organizations to boost their network.”
Table 3: Conflicts-related Casualty Figures in India since March 2008

Graph 3: Conflicts-related casualty figures in India since March 2008

By taking a cursory look at these figures we can see that any considerable improvement towards curbing violence, related to the ongoing conflicts in India, is not in sight. The violence and militancy seems to continue in the coming months. Given the number of bomb blasts in Ahmadabad and Bangalore, it can be assumed that terrorism may intensify further in the country.

KASHMIR
Situation in Indian occupied Jammu and Kashmir remained very turbulent. The Chief Minister had to resign. Governor’s rule was imposed on July 11. Protests, firings, gunbattles between Indian security forces and Kashmiri freedom-fighters were reported throughout the month. The beginning of the month witnessed continuing protests against the transfer of land to the Shri Amarnathji Shrine Board. Curfew had to be imposed in many areas at several occasions.
Total 400 casualties – 43 deaths and 357 injuries – were reported. Month vise figures since March 2008 are given in Table 4.

Table 4: Conflict-related casualty figures in Indian occupied Jammu and Kashmir since March 2008

Graph 4: Conflict-related casualty figures in Indian occupied Jammu and Kashmir since March 2008

Major incidents of violence in the Indian occupied Jammu and Kashmir included an 18-hour-long gun-battle on July 16; killing of five army personnel by the freedom-fighters in the Kupwara district on July 4; destruction of Indian security forces’ bus by freedom-fighters using an IED in Srinagar on July 19; martyrdom of two freedom-fighters and a Special Police Officer; and a grenade attack in Srinagar on July 24.

Human rights’ violations by Indian forces in Jammu and Kashmir are resonating all over the world. European Parliament unanimously passed a resolution on July 11 demanding a probe into the matter. In fact, Indian forces have killed thousands of innocent Kashmiris. The resolution calls on the government of India to “urgently ensure independent and impartial investigations into all suspected sites of mass graves in the State and, as a first step, secure the sites in order to preserve evidence.”

House of Commons held a conference, ‘Visions For Peace’ in London on July 2. The conference declared that “right of self-determination was an inalienable and non-negotiable right of the people of Jammu and Kashmir and people of the state should be granted this right to ensure peace in the region in particular and the world in general.” The conference also called for setting up an international commission to look into human rights violations by Indian forces in Kashmir.

In a development, PPP co-chairman, Asif Zardari, has supported the idea of an autonomous Kashmir. Pakistan and India have agree on Kashmir-specific CBMs.

AFGHANISTAN

The month of July remained among the bloodiest months this year in Afghanistan. Afghan Islamic Press reported 909 casualties – 198 deaths and 409 injuries. Among the killed were 30 foreign soldiers, including 21 ISAF, 4 US and 1 Canadian. Among the injured were 41 foreign soldiers, including 28 ISAF, 9 British, 2 Canadian and 1 Italian. Thus, foreign forces suffered 71 casualties. Detail of the casualties is given in Table 5.
Table 5: Conflict-related casualty figures in Afghanistan during July 2008

In Table 6, casualties caused by the war since March 2008 are presented.
Table 6: Conflict-related casualty figures in Afghanistan since March 2008

Graph 5: Conflict-related Casualty Figures in Afghanistan since March 2008

Seven years have passed after America attacked Afghanistan, but nobody can say with any level of certainty that how long the war will continue. Most of the analysts observe, “The security situation there shows no signs of improvement.” Increase in insurgency shows “more skill and planning than routine Taliban violence.” In fact, the United States and its coalition partners in Afghanistan are caught in a dilemma. On the one hand, they want to win Afghan population’s sympathies, and, on the other, they cannot help but bomb the militant insurgent forces and their hideouts. The bombings cause more and more civilian casualties leading to an increased hatred and feeling of vengeance among the general public. The way the US approaches the Afghan problem and the events taking place in the country show that the war may continue for much longer time than one would like to see. In fact, it is time “to invest in human development and not in bombs that destroy lives and the future of this unfortunate land.”

According to a report by International Crisis Group, “an important reason behind the success of the Afghan Taliban is the ability of the extremist Islamic movement to effectively harness its communication skills.” According to another report by the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF), “children in Afghanistan suffer more than in any other country in the world from violence, war and poverty, and sometimes become suicide bombers.”

NEPAL

Nine causalities were reported – six fatalities and three injuries. At least five bombs blasted during the month resulting in five casualties. JTMM, YCL and CPN-UML were involved in the violence. An NC leader was also among the killed.
Table 7: Conflict-related casualty figures in Nepal since March 2008

Graph 6: Conflict-related casualty figures in Nepal since March 2008
although threee months have passed after the elections, the parties have failed to agree on forming a coalition government. Political instability prevails in the country. Dr. Ram Baran Yadav of the NC was elected as the first President of Nepal on July 20. Maoists suffered a setback and their candidate lost the presidential election.

In the last week of the month, President Ram Baran Yadav invited the CPN-Maoist to form the Government. The party had emerged as the single largest party in the elections. Responding to the invitation, CPN-Maoist chairman, Prachanda, informed that his party is in the process of forming the Government.

According to a report published by Asian Centre for Human Rights (ACHR), Nepal Nepal recorded least human rights violation in South Asia.

SRI LANKA

 Civil War in Sri Lanka continues unabatedly and there is no end to violence in sight. The country topped the list of Human Rights Violators in South Asia, according to a report released by The Asian Centre for Human Rights (ACHR). The number of casualties again crossed the one thousand mark in July. 1101 casualties were reported in total. Detailed figures are shown in table 8.

Table 8: Conflict-related Casualty Figures in Sri Lanka during July 2008

Table 9: Conflict-related Casualty Figures in Sri Lanka since March 2008

Graph 7: Casualties of Terrorist violence in Sri Lanka since March 2008

In the first week of the month, Tamil Tigers commemorated 356 suicide attackers committed suicide for the Tamil cause during the 21-years period. The rebels made an offer for ceasefire, but, was rejected by the government. The government said that it would not “pursue the matter … unless the rebels laid down arms.” The rebels, in fact, made a sharp move at the eve of the 15th SAARC Summit in Colombo to gain the sympathies of the regional governments. The rebels said, “As a sign of goodwill, our movement is glad to inform that it will observe a unilateral ceasefire that is devoid of military actions during the period of the Saarc conference from 26th July to 4th August and extend cooperation for the success of the conference.”

Pakistan

Terrorism, violence and operations led to 539 casualties – 175 fatalities and 364 injuries – in Pakistan during the month of July. Casualty figures since March 2008 are given in Table 10.

Table 10: Conflicts-related Casualty Figures in Pakistan since March 2008

Graph 8: Conflicts-related casualty figures in Pakistan since March 2008
Pakistan is caught into one of the severest dilemmas of its history. It is fighting the “War on Terror” as a US ally. And, at the same time, the American forces in Afghanistan are attacking Pakistani territories with missiles and fighter jets. Scores of people have been killed and injured and thousands others displaces because of these attacks. President Bush has tried to assure Pakistan that the US respects Pakistan’s sovereignty but it seems to be only an eyewash.

The country is passing through political, economic and security crises. Internal security is suffering because of the militancy and terrorism. “A triple crisis of politics, militancy and the economy is the battering ram at the door of Pakistan’s government. Each limb of the crisis is feeding off and compounding the other,” writes Cyril Almeida.

“THE relative quiet with which Balochistan’s militant nationalists had been watching political developments in the country has been broken by Brahmdakh Bugti’s strident call for a sovereign Balochistan,” Obeserves I.A. Rehman. Clashes and attacks continued in the province. Balochistan National Party and Baloch Students Organisation observed Yaum-i-Shuda-i-Balochistan on July 15 amid the violence. Minor operations were carried out in the province. A chief engineer of a company was killed in Khuzdar on July 24. Next day, a powerful blast hit football stadium in Quetta.

Taliban continue to be a source of tension mainly in the NWFP and FATA. Their drive for power makes them challenge the state’s writ. The Government has launched a number of military operations to root out Taliban militants. Fierce clashes were reported in parts of North West Frontier Province (NWFP) and Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). Helicopter gunships were used at a number of times to target militants’ hideouts. Several militant commanders and leaders were killed and arrested. In this way, the government achieved a considerable success and the militant forces now seem to be weakened. Though, in the beginning of the month, Taliban forces looked very confident and they even gave an ultimatum to the NWFP Government to resign within five days otherwise face the consequences. They also issued a statement that they are in the position to get hold of Karachi – the commercial hub of Pakistan. After the government successes, people, in general, feel safer as compared to before. There is a visible decrease in suicide attacks and bomb blasts in the country.

It does not mean that the militants have stopped their activities. Malak Shahjehan Khan, a prominent pro-government tribal leader and chief of the Mamond tribe, was killed in an ambush on July 21. More Girls’ schools and shops were destroyed by the militants. Internet café, TV cable service and music and CD shops owners in received threatening letters and emails in Muzaffargarh from some ‘Taliban Tehrik Muzaffargarh.’ They were warned “to close down their un-Islamic and immoral businesses within 15 days or face death.” In Kot Addu, women who do not wear burqa or veil were warned that their face would be defaced with acid. The women have been given a five-day warning to wear burqa or veil or be ready to be defaced.

An Afghan woman was killed by local Taliban in North Waziristan on July 29. The Taliban accused her of spying for the US forces in Afghanistan. It is second time that a woman has been killed by the Taliban on spying charges. The first one was killed in Bajaur in June.