|
Khuram Iqbal
Located between the two rising powers, India and China, Nepal is undergoing a crucial phase of its centuries old history. After successful orange revolution in April 2006, country has witnessed many landmark changes that provide an optimistic picture of a democratic, peaceful, secure and stable Nepal in the future.
Maoists, once declared terrorists, have shunned violence and become a part of mainstream politics. Monarchy, previously held sacred, has been made a part of history. Mainstream political parties, once struggling with grave differences, have been transformed into a formal alliance to guide the country on the path of stability and peace. Above all, interim government is set to hold elections for the constituent assembly on 10 April 2008 after a successful reconciliation with agitating Madheshi groups of Terai region.
However, with uncertainties constantly haunting the political scene, Nepal’s journey to democracy, peace and stability seems to be jagged in the short term. King has not given up yet. India’s shadowy role in domestic Nepali affairs is giving rise to several questions. Moreover, the US is still not convinced to endorse a major political role for Maoists, officially declared terrorists by the US state department.
Terai Unrest: Desperate Bid to Save Monarchy
Though, interim constitution had already clipped all powers and privileges of the monarch, but King has not give up yet. Pro-royalist forces inside and outside Nepal are still making desperate bids to save the Nepal’s official status as the world’s only Hindu state and the King as well.
In April 2006, a massive movement led by Seven Parties Alliance (SPA) and the Maoists rebels successfully overthrew the centuries old monarchy. Consequently, hopes were skyscraping for a democratic and peaceful Nepal. But dramatically, southern part of the country emerged as the new conflict zone. In the following days, nearly two dozen never heard armed outfits mushroomed in the region with ethnic and religious agendas. Surprisingly, for the first time in the history of Nepal, a militant group “Nepal Defense Army” emerged as first ever violent outfit with a Hindu cause.
Many in Nepal believe that all of these dramatic events unfolding in Southern Nepal are orchestrated by pro-royalist elements aimed at saving the feudal monarchy. The newly emerged militant groups are being encouraged to create uncertainty and mistrust over current secular status of Nepal and ongoing political process. By giving rise to ethnic differences and manipulating “Hindu Cause”, these forces seek to portray the ousted King as the symbol of unity in Nepal who could ensure equal rights to ethnically diverse society like Nepal.
Shadowy Role of India
Not just the ruling Seven Parties Alliance (SPA) but Maoists too, have expressed concerns over India’s ambiguous role with regard to post-monarch Nepal. Apparently Indian government has been vocal to extend support to any initiative taken by Nepali political actors for the establishment of democracy and peace in the country. But the clandestine activities of Indian diplomats in Nepal and vocal opposition of a secular Nepal by powerful Hindu right wing parties in India highlight the contradictions and ambiguities in Indian policies towards Nepal.
The prospect of Maoists coming to power in Nepal is not acceptable to Indian government because they fear it may strengthen Maoists separatists in Indian North East. Likewise “Republic of Nepal” in place of an officially declared Hindu state of Nepal irks right wing Hindu extremist political parties sitting on opposition benches in current Indian parliament. For the very reason, declaration of Nepal as a secular state on May 16, 2006, faced very strong resistance from Hindu extremist parties active in Nepal and India. Leading Hindu fundamentalist party in India “Bhartya Janta Party” (BJP) even warned that if Nepal is not a Hindu Kingdom, there is no Nepal. BJP also vowed to wage holy war against the secular Nepal. Also, the Hindu hardliner groups like “Bhartya Janta Party” (BJP), "Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh" (RSS) and Shiv Sena, with their nostalgia for the world’s last Hindu monarch, are lending a hand to monarchists in Nepal by provoking sectarian/ethnic violence in the country’s southern plains.
The Road Ahead
At present Nepal is at the crossroads of its history. If SPA in collaboration with CPN-N stands to hold much awaited elections for constituent assembly, on April 10, 2008, it would prove to be the last nail in the coffin of centuries old monarchy in Nepal. Postponing CA election may pave the way for another cycle of violent confrontation and Maoists may also return to their violent past. To attain the objective of a democratic, peaceful and stable Nepal, future government would also have to address the valid grievances of Madheshi people. Dissatisfactions must be tackled by giving the people of Terai a greater say within their own region and drawing them into the mainstream of national life in Nepal. Any form of dissent that is not supported by the people of Terai but by the foreign elements, must be clamped down.
As an influential neighbor, India needs to rethink and reconstruct its policies towards Nepal that must be in accordance with the aspiration of a new democratic and secular Nepal. Right wing extremist parties in India must understand the ambitions of the Nepali people who waged vigorous struggle in early 2006 to seek the abolishment of outdated monarchy. Otherwise anti-India sentiments among Nepali masses will get stronger.
Not only India but the US as well, must give Maoists a chance to become a part of mainstream politics and give up the violence. To safeguard their interests in the region, both the countries just need to make it clear that Maoists don’t return to violence and don’t support their fellow Naxalites in the neighboring Indian states. A successful Constituent Assembly election must be carried out in a free and fair manner. Let the Maoists contest upcoming elections and leave it up to the Nepali people to decide their political future.
Maoists also need to bring their conduct in line with the standards of mainstream political parties in multiparty democracies. Though, Incidents of violence, involving the Young Communist League (YCL) have been declined in recent days but more initiatives are required by the Maoists to prove their political credentials.
If the international, regional and national players in Nepali politics successfully hold free and fair election in April 2008, it will become a classic role model of neutralizing the violent elements or insurgents by putting them into the mainstream political life.
(Khuram Iqbal is a Research Analyst at S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University. He was previously a senior researcher at Pak Institute for Peace Studies, Islamabad, Pakistan.)
Related Stories:
1. Armed Conflicts in South Asia: Overview and New Dimensions
2. Conflict: The lingering Threat in Nepal
|
