SAN Report

The deal for civilian nuclear co-operation between India and the US i.e. “123 Agreement” was dubbed as a ‘mere formality’ last year. It was assumed that mere paper work was left to strike this deal and, certainly, this would have been the case if both the Indian military and presidency had been under the control of a single man and the prime minister and the atomic programme had also been under his command with all the political powers being powerless before him.
Indian foreign minister, Shev Shankar Menin, visited Washington on May 1, 2007 and held talks with the US Under-Secretary of State for political affairs, Nicolas Burns. Hereafter, while speaking in “The foreign Affairs Day”- a programme held by the US state department- he said 99% work on the agreement had been completed and this agreement would be signed during his visit to New Delhi in the coming two weeks but, while speaking at a local Think Tank on May 23, he declared, “We have completed 90% work of the agreement”. A cut of 9% is quite critical in an estimate made on such a high level because not only the completion of work came down from 99% to 90% but Mr. Burns also deferred his visit to India for an indefinite period of time. Mr. Burns was to visit New Delhi in the end of May2007 but Sean Mc Cormack, a spokesperson for the US State Department- said Mr. Burns would now visit New Delhi at a time when we would be ready to sign the deal and, at the moment, we were not at this stage.
On her return from India in March 2005, the US secretary of State Condo Liza Rice had declared the US and other western states would not only sell atomic technology to India for civilian use but also provide atomic fuel to run its 22 atomic plants. According to the list presented by India, 14 atomic plants were declared as ‘civilian’. The US and Nuclear Supplier Group(NSG) put the condition of opening these 14 atomic plants for the inspection of International Atomic Energy Agency(IAEA) so that it could be ensured that the atomic technology and fuel provided by the US was really being utilized in civilian plants for peaceful purposes and not for military ones. The second condition was not to reprocess the atomic spent fuel of these civilian plants because, in this way, it can be used in the manufacturing of atomic weapons. India projected its Tarapur Atomic Plant as being for peaceful purposes but carried out the atomic explosion in 1974 by using the spent fuel of this plant. The third condition imposed by the US and NSG was that India would not conduct any further nuclear explosion henceforth. India had voluntarily decided not to conduct any more nuclear explosions after its explosions of May, 1998. The US views India as being firm in this decision.
The US was to amend its laws to extend nuclear technology and atomic fuel to India and this amendment could not be made without the willingness of India to be recipient of such technology and fuel. The US, for the sake of obtaining India’s consent, removed at that time the conditions of not reprocessing the spent fuel and not conducting any more nuclear explosions. After the removal of the two aforesaid restrictions, the Indian government endorsed the deal. This agreement was signed during the visit of Indian Prime Minister, Manmohn Singh, to Washington in July, 2005 but the deal was yet to be approved by the parliament.
As said by Indian media, Chairman Indian Atomic Energy Commission, Dr. Anil Kakodkar, and his team had vetoed the “agreed text” of ‘123 Agreement’ prior to Mr. Burnz’ visit to New Delhi. Later, urgent negotiations were held in London attended by Indian Foreign ministry’s Joint Secretary for Americas (Both the continents of North and South America), Dr. SJ Shankar and Dick Stratford, Director US State Department’s Office of Atomic Security and Support.
The Indian government, for getting the ‘law of exemption’ passed by the US congress, had agreed to the understanding that the reprocessing of the spent fuel and effecting more nuclear explosions would not be formally mentioned in the text of the agreement. But, now Chairman Indian Atomic Energy Commission, Dr. Kakodkar, demands that the US clearly assure India that it can reprocess the spent fuel at any time in future and can also carry out more atomic explosions if it desires so without being threatened by the US with the cancellation of the supply of atomic fuel.
It is apt to note here that the present atomic cooperation between the two countries is based on the agreement reached between Indian Prime Minister Rajeev Gandhi and US president Ronald Regan in 1985 under which the US had pledged to transfer high technology to India. After 25 years, India has now reached a stage where it can draw on the atomic technology of high level. What were the hopes that India was entertaining while erecting 22 atomic plants during this period?  Had you invested billions of dollars to fritter away if neither you had the atomic fuel to run them nor, in view of international sanctions, any expectation to get it? Moreover, where had this fuel been coming from during the last 25 years? 
According to an American expert, this fuel or ‘heavy water’ was being sold by china to India in black market. But, here arises the question: why would china provide such strategic commodity to its enemy (India). But the said US expert has an answer to this question also when he says that China needed foreign exchange at that time. But, why the US extended state-of-the-art technology to India and said it was preparing India against China if such secret cooperation was going on between two Asian countries.
The fact of the matter is that the US too kept on providing fuel to India despite the stealing of fuel from Tarapur plant. France was then directed to provide fuel to India when this provision, under its constitution in 1978, was no longer possible for the US. And the incidents confirm that these are the western countries who have been supplying heavy water to India from black market since 1990s. China, in the first place, would not extend such cooperation to India and even if it does so, it cannot meet the needs of 22 reactors as it has to run its own reactors as well.
India is well aware of the fact that the US and NSG, by supplying atomic technology and fuel, desire to earn money from it. According to an estimate, a transaction of $80-90billion can be made with India in this respect. Indian atomic scientists do not want that the western countries, having earned such a big amount, suddenly suspend the supply of heavy water on some pretext or the other or they( Indians) remain in a constant threat in connection with the provisions of reprocessing of the spent fuel and conducting further explosions. They also fear that, once its interests are served, the US might turn its back to India as it has often been doing with Pakistan.
Mr. Nicolus Burnz has categorically stated that India will have to be willing to the inspection of its atomic plants by IAEA if it is desirous of benefiting from the US, France or Russia in the field of atomic technology. And, this is why the ‘Safeguard Agreement’ is being made. The Americans believe that a delay on the part of India in getting its atomic installation inspected by the IAEA is creating unfavorable atmosphere in the US congress for this agreement. They also see India-Iran relations as being a hurdle to the deal that would further complicate the matters.
India and the US have invested 25 years in the development of these relations which do not seem to be ending at this juncture. The Indians probably think that Indian demands would be accepted as the US and the western business interests would rather make money than terminate the long-standing relations of the two countries.