Ranga Kalansooriya

The Sri Lankan government on July 11 announced that it had captured therebel stronghold in the Eastern jungles of Sri Lanka, Thoppigala.
Capturing the training and partly logistic bastian of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in the eastern jungles of Sri Lanka is considered, by the military, as a major victory in its recent battle against Tigers. The government launched a massive onslaught on Tiger bases in the eastern belt to eliminate LTTE operations in the region with a view of holding local polls and also launching a massive development program.
Defence analysts, however, hold a different opinion. Being a thick jungle and situated out of the main supply routes, they feel that Thoppigala, a jungle mountain with a top that resembles the shape of a hat, is not a militarily important strategic base for the Sri Lankan armed forces. They express severe concerns over the sustainability and maintenance of the captured area. Military operation was a success, but how to protect and maintain this thick jungle hills, defence experts question.
"We never wanted to capture Thoppigala since it was not strategically important to us. We knew that there would be a high cost to maintain it," the then eastern commander of the Indian Peace Keeping Force to Sri Lanka told media last week.
Capturing land has been the key feature of the battle between the LTTE and Sri Lankan military forces since the inception of LTTE. With the capturing of Thoppigala, according to Sri Lankan defence ministry, the Tigers have lost all their major strongholds in the East. But the Tiger movements will never be ceased in the troubled region, independent analysts believe.
Since the beginning of the new cycle of violence in Sri Lanka after signing the ceasefire agreement between the LTTE and the then government in February 2002, the Eastern Province of Sri Lanka has been the 'hot-spot' of the battle amidst sporadic rounds of fighting in the northern Wanni jungles. With the population equally divided among Muslims, Tamils and Sinhalese, the Eastern Province of Sri Lanka means a lot to any militant group given its strategic location and the existence of one of the most natural harbours in the world - Trincomalee.
The LTTE faced many debacles in the recent fighting in the East. Its renegade rebel leader Karuna was the key LTTE fighter in the region till his removal from the organization. He has spearheaded as the main opponent to the LTTE in the east enjoying logistic and moral support from the government troops. His cadres move freely with security forces, conduct military operations and also engage in political activities in a bid to win the upcoming local polls in the region.
The forthcoming local polls could create more havoc in the eastern region, analysts say. Some militant groups are geared to win the polls 'by hook or by crook.' The Eelam's Peoples Democratic Party (EPDP), a paramilitary cum active political group that holds a ministerial post in the government has already commenced campaigning creating animosity among other Tamil militant groups including that of the Karuna Group.
The Karuna Group also experienced a major split within its ranks a couple of months ago. Karuna's chief military commander challenged the renegade LTTE fighter giving birth to another military fraction in the region. Though the media reports claim that the dispute has already been patched-up, things remain uncertain among the two groups.
Apart from the militant activities by the Tamil groups, there are signs of upcoming radical Muslim armed groups - specifically aligned to religious extremism. Observers noticed a couple of sectarian killings by rival Islamic groups in the East during recent times and this phenomenon would definitely add more fuel to the fire.
Amidst all these disturbances there are over 100,000 internally displaced persons still in refugee camps without even basic facilities. The government, after its battle to 'liberate' some areas from the Tiger grip, has begun a rapid resettlement scheme which has attracted criticism by independent watchdog groups with regard to the manner in which the process is being handled. "Its happening totally against the accepted international standards," they recently claimed.
There are some beliefs that the heavy battle will now move over to the Northern peninsula of Sri Lanka or the Wanni jungles. The government, with a high morale of its troops after series of victories in the East, believes that they are on a 'winning wicket' against the Tigers. Defence experts, however, are sceptical about this view. Nevertheless, the East will remain the hot-spot f Sri Lankan conflict at least for some time given its present political and military vulnerabilities.