Outcome of Elections 2008 in Pakistan: Major Factors

Muhammad Azam

The ninth general elections were held in Pakistan on February 18, 2008.[i] Early in the morning, on the polling day, a foreign TV channel commented that the polls had a potential to be a referendum against Musharraf Government’s policies, and the results vindicated this statement. The electorate rejected Musharraf’s prime supporters i.e. Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid-i-Azam (PML-Q).

As a result of swing voting, Pakistan People’s Party scored highest number of National Assembly seats, followed by Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N). PML-Q remained at the third number. Twenty-two of the PML-Q federal ministers lost their seats.[ii] President PML-Q and Speaker National Assembly also failed to secure their seats. Turnout remained at 45.67 percent.

In this article, reasons of this kind of outcome have been examined. Five of the major factors have been identified and discussed briefly whereas a mention of other important factors has also been made.

1.      Military Operations: Military operations in Wazirastan, Swat, Lal Masjid (Red Mosque) and Balochistan caused a widespread resentment among the masses against Musharraf Government. The people generally witnessed these operations as an inappropriate use of force by an army ruler instead of using political means to resolve the conflicts.

The government continued its military operations against the militants and al-Qaeda remnants in NWFP and FATA, and continued to target nationalist leaders in Balochistan despite the fact that most of the mainstream political parties frequently insisted on “negotiations as the only viable instrument for restoring peace.” These operations caused collateral damage where most of the innocent civilians were either killed or displaced. Massive displacements were reported in Balochistan, Waziristan and Swat.

It is believed that the Lal Masjid Operation particularly affected the election outcome in Islamabad and Rawalpindi. Sheikh Rashid, a cabinet member in the PML-Q setup, acknowledged this after losing his Rawalpindi seats. A string of suicide attacks across the country after Lal Masjid debacle also sent negative messages to the masses about Musharraf policies.

The people rejected military rule and role in politics of those who had a military background. Ijaz ul-Haq (son of former Army Chief and Martial Law administrator Zia ul-Haq) and Humayon Akhtar (son of a former General, Akhtar Abd ur-Rehman) also lost their seats in the elections. General (Retd) Qadir Baloch, who is also a former governor of Balochistan Province, was defeated on both of his seats.[iii] Colonel (Retd) Ghulam Rasool Sahi and his brother Afzal Sahi are also among the defeated.[iv] Others who have an army background but lost the elections include Omar Ayub Khan, Minister of State for Finance in the former setup[v] and Major (Retd) Habib-ul-Allah Waraich.[vi]

2.      Judicial Crisis: On March 9, 2007, President Musharraf called the Chief Justice of Pakistan, Iftikhar Chaudhary, to his camp office and asked him to resign. The Chief Justice refused. He was physically restrained till 5pm to prevent him from leaving the Camp Office.[vii] The President made him dysfunctional on the same day. “No one knew at that time that the Chief Justice’s ‘No’ would change the history of Pakistan,” observes Asian Human Rights Commission.[viii]

Lawyers carried out massive protests all over the country. A few days later, the president sent a reference to the Supreme Judicial Council to investigate allegations of misconduct against him. On his way to the Supreme Court to appear before the Judicial Council he was manhandled by the law enforcement agencies.

On March 17, the President sent the Chief Justice on forced leave. Several judges resigned in protest. Almost all of the mainstream political parties carried out protest rallies and expressed their solidarity with the lawyers and victimized judiciary. Actions against the Chief Justice were condemned widely at home and abroad. Demands of his restoration were made from every nook and corner.

A full bench of the Supreme Court nullified the charges against the Chief Justice and reinstated him in July last year. The people particularly the lawyers community celebrated the event throughout the country. “This is the first ever verdict contradicting a military ruler in the history of Pakistan.” For making ‘scandalous’ claims against the Chief Justice, the government was fined by the Court.

Musharraf imposed emergency rule and suspended the constitution on November 3 when the Court was going to rule on Musharraf’s eligibility as president. Justice Chaudhary and several other judges were removed from the office.

The lawyers’ community resumed their protest movement demanding Musharraf to step down. Protesting lawyers were baton-charged and arrested including those who were leading the lawyers’ movement like Aitzaz Ahsan and Ali Ahmed Kurd. Protests against the imposition of emergency were made in foreign countries as well.[ix]

“Such acts have no parallel in history. They can be only taken where there is a law of jungle,” commented Justice Iqbal Hameed ur-Rehman of the Lahore High Court, who was among those who refused to take oath under the Provisional Constitutional Order (PCO) after November 3, 2007.[x]

Actually, rift between the Musharraf government and judiciary was due to the latter’s stand on sensitive issues like missing persons and Musharraf’s qualification for holding the president office.

The chief justice was invited by the bar associations in a number of major cities of the country where he delivered speeches. Unfortunately, his plan to address Karachi Bar Association on May 12 last year was sabotaged by use of force and violence. The night before his arrival, all roads leading to the airport were blocked. At more than 20 points in the city, roads were also blocked next morning.[xi] Armed groups exchanged heavy fire in various parts of the city leaving 42 dead.[xii] But president Musharraf was addressing “a ruling party rally in Islamabad amid drumbeats and folk dances only hours after three dozen people had lost their lives to the mindless violence in Karachi.”[xiii] MQM activists were widely blamed to be responsible for the sabotage and violence.[xiv]

PML-N cashed in the issue very successfully. Aitzaz Ahsan, president Supreme Court Bar Association commented that PPP did not made the issue – reinstatement of the independent judiciary – part of its election campaign otherwise it would have won a higher number of seats.

3.      Political Awareness: An increased level of political awareness among the masses is another factor determining the outcome of the polls. Revolution in electronic media played an important role. NGOs and other civil society organs have also contributed to an increased level of political awareness. Politicians also have acknowledged the role played by the media and civil society.

Masses are now much more aware of the issues like rule of law, sanctity of the constitution, and importance of an independent judiciary.

In fact, private media had to bear the brunt for its independent reporting and coverage – criticizing the government’s policies and actions. When the judicial crisis was at its height and the lawyers’ movement was gaining momentum, a popular private TV channel’s office was attacked by the police in Islamabad. The personnel, including at least one of the country’s top-level anchorpersons, were manhandled. Licenses of some of the TV channels were suspended.

Amendments in the Pemra Ordinance and restrictions on private TV channels and on their editorial content affected the press and media freedom. Some of the private TV channels remained off air for days and weeks. Some prominent journalists were banned. Some of the programs debating political issues were stopped. These attacks and curbs were widely condemned at national and international levels.

Journalists and media persons carried out protest meetings and rallies in different cities of the country denouncing the PEMRA Ordinances and demanding revocation of the curbs. Some of the protesting journalists were also baton-charged and beaten.

4.      Price hike and Crises of flour shortage, electricity and gas: Price hike and crises of flour shortage, electricity and gas before the elections were dragging the people away from the ruling party.

In the following table, prices of some of the daily use items are compared as they were on January 1 and December 1, 2007.[xv]

The table shows a considerable increase in prices. Long queues of customers outside utility stores to buy flour and sugar on subsidized rates were seen on daily basis in different parts of the country. Wheat flour prices, particularly, became one of the major election campaign issues. In some of the districts, like Swabi, an increase of 50 rupees per 20 kg just in four days was noted in December 2007.[xvi]

On January 7 – just one month before the elections – caretaker minister for water and power announced to reduce power load shedding in Lahore to three hours every day.[xvii]

The people were in trouble and very unhappy going to the polling stations to cast their votes.

5.      Boycott: More than 25 parties boycotted the elections.[xviii] Their boycott also became – though only to some extent – a factor in the outcome as a whole. Other parties benefitted from the absence of their rivals.

Boycotting parties included Jamaat-e-Islami, Jamiat Ulema-e-Pakistan, Nizam-e-Mustafa Party, Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party (PkMAP), Tehrik-i-Insaf, Sindh Taraqi Pasand Party, Awami Tehrik, National Party, National Workers Party, Ittehad Party, Khaksar Tehrik, Balochistan National Party, Seraiki National Party and Sindh National Front.[xix]

JI, Pakistan Tehrik-i-Insaf (PTI) and some of the other parties demanded (a) restoration of the judges of the superior courts who refused to take oath under the PCO and (b) formation of an independent caretaker government to hold free and fair elections. Many of them believed and alleged that “the intelligence agencies were planning large-scale rigging in the elections.”[xx]

Other factors: Apart from above-discussed major factors, there were some other noticeable factors affecting the outcome of the elections. Musharraf repeatedly turned to extra-constitutional measures.[xxi] He skillfully managed to remain in power since October 1999. The people expressed through their votes that they do not want “maneuvered politics.”

Benazir and Nawaz Sharif’s return from exile altered the situation of election campaign in its entirety by mobilizing the workers and voters at higher levels. They continued to dominate the scene until Benazir’s assassination on December 27. This gruesome act further sensitized the voters contributing to an increased level of turnout on the polling day.

Aftab Ahmed Sherpao, a minister in the former government, when asked for his comments on the election results and PML-Q’s defeat, said that Musharraf had been continuously assuring his supporters that Benazir and Nawaz Sharif will not be allowed to return but, at the end of the day, they got back and whole of the scenario changed.

People continued drifting away from the ruling coalition due to its flawed policies. They were disgruntled because of the worsened law and order situation. Twenty-five suicide bombings took place from the polling schedules announcement on November 19 to February 18.[xxii] These bombings caused 163 deaths.

PML-N’s top leadership was out of contest. Nomination papers of the Party Chairman and two times former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his brother and former Chief Minister Punjab, Shahbaz Sharif, were rejected. It might have affected the outcome for the party negatively.

Before the polls some commented that Benazir Bhutto’s assassination has created a sympathy wave for PPP and it might strongly affect the polls outcome. But election results do not lend much support to this view because, a number of times, the party has won majority.

Imposition of emergency in 2007 was reminiscent of the Martial Laws imposed by Ayub and Zia causing further disenchantment with General Musharraf and the ruling party PML-Q among the masses. A few weeks before the general elections a political analyst wrote, “The regime’s popularity is at the lowest level since 1999 when it came into power…. It has not provided the teeming millions of youth with good jobs or even decent living opportunities…”[xxiii]

Many of the earlier supports and members of Musharraf government switched their loyalties, like, former PML-Q senator Dr Shahzad Waseem joined PPP in December 2007. Imtiaz Shaikh, senior vice president and member of the central working committee of PML-Q resigned in November 2006.[xxiv] Hina Rabbani Khar, who was a state minister in the former setup, joined PPP. Former member provincial assembly (MPA) Qaswar Langrial from Muzaffargarh, who was elected in 2002 on a PML-Q ticket, also joined PPP.[xxv] Another former PML-Q MPA Syed Qaim Ali Shamsi from Muzaffargarh deserted the party.[xxvi]

Former governor of Balochistan Syed Fazal Agha and others formed a group to contest the general elections as an independent panel in the province. Mr. Agha and some others in the group were earlier affiliated with the PML-Q.[xxvii] Lt-Gen (retd) Majeed Malik joined the PML-Q in 2000 but rejoined PML-N.[xxviii]

A renewed trust in the political leadership among the masses is also coming into sight. People have come to believe that the political leadership, at least that of the major parties, have learned a lot over the years. In a general understanding, the political leadership has matured enough to accept their follies of the past and overcome their personal interests and egos for the sake of strengthening democracy in the country. Charter of Democracy is a good example and proves this new emerging real