PIPS - Pakistan Institute For Peace Studies (SouthAsiaNet-PAKISTAN)

SOUTHASIANET - PAKISTAN

Dated: 29-02-2008

Balochistan: Outcome of Polls and Reconciliation Outlook

Safdar Sial

Historically, the province of Balochistan has produced coalition governments comprising of mainstream political parties, local groups and factions, and independent candidates, mostly Nawabs and Sardars, and this pattern is likely to be repeated as poll results for February-18 parliamentary elections are suggesting. The election results in Balochistan have shown some very interesting developments attributed to larger extent to the nationalist parties’ boycotting the general election from the APDM platform. The Pakistan Muslim League (Q) has emerged as a majority party in Balochistan grabbing 17 Provincial Assembly and 3 National Assembly seats from Balochistan. The Pakistan People’s Party Parliamentarians (PPPP) has won 7 setas in the Balochistan Assembly besides securing 4 National Assembly seats from the province. The Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI-F), which had managed to win 18 seats in the Balochistan Assembly in 2002 elections, has got just 7 seats. The provincial Amir of the Jamiat, Maulana Muhammad Khan Sherani, has lost the National Assembly slot at the hands of Maulana Asmatullah of JUI’s newly established ideological faction. The Baloch National Party-Awami (BNP-A), Awami National Party (ANP), and National Party (NP) Parliamentarians have bagged 5, 2 and one seats respectively in the Provincial Assembly.

The PML-Q has a clear lead over PPPP in numbers which indicates that a PML-Q-led coalition government in Balochistan can be formed where PPPP has a role of opposition. The other scenario suggests a PPPP-led coalition government forcing PML-Q to sit on opposition benches. Both the parties have started their campaign to muster up maximum support from the winning parties and, at large, the independent candidates. However the chances of a PPPP-led ruling coalition in Balochistan are becoming brighter after JUI-F and a group of seven independent members have shown their intent to support the Pakistan People’s Party. The group of independent MPAs has declared that it will not support parties which were involved in the killing of nationalist leaders Nawab Akbar Bugti and Nawabzada Balach Marri and which supported the military operation in Balochistan. In the meanwhile a vivid rift is being reported among PML-Q on the issue of premiership of the province and the formation of a forward block within the party is being expected. Whoever forms the government in Balochistan, the Baloch and Pashtun nationalist parties will not be in the parliament and they have done so deliberately by boycotting the elections.

The hasty appointment of political heavyweight Nawab Zulfiqar Ali Magsi, PML-Q-elect MPA, as governor Balochistan has two main perceptions among the people of the Balochistan. On the one hand they have welcomed the appointment of Balochistan-domiciled person as Governor, irrespective of his Baloch or Pashtun origin, and on the other hand they are expressing their concern that the ‘centre’ wants to retain the control of Balochistan this way. Appointment of a PML-Q member as governor has sufficient reasons to raise questions in people’s minds because they hold this party responsible for military operation in the restive province. Nawab Magsi, nonetheless, has vowed to resolve the conflicts by political reconciliation and he has shown strong favour to providing amnesty to all people in Balochistan. However, if the PPPP succeeds in forming government at the province, the chances of conflict with the new Governor can not be ruled out but one encouraging factor hints at other way that Nawab Magsi’s younger brothers Mir Aamir Magsi and Mir Nadir Magsi wield considerable influence in the PPPP. Some circles are also divulging upon the opinion that Nawab Magsi has been appointed with the consent of the Pakistan People’s Party. The PML-Q (Balochistan) is also expected to be satisfied with the appointment and there are reports that a group in the party is ready to join hands with the Pakistan People’s Party.

If Nawab Magsi’s statement of political reconciliation is pieced together with recent statements from PPPP’s co-chairman, Asif Zardari, and late Benazir Bhutto, the future ‘strategy’ for Balochistan is not much difficult to predict. The Pakistan People's Party on February 24 called for an immediate end to the military operation in Balochistan and demanded the release of all the political prisoners in the province. In the parliamentary party of the PPPP-Balochistan chaired by Asif Ali Zardari the new members-elect also pledged to work for provincial autonomy. In one of the resolutions, the PPPP on behalf of the people of Pakistan apologized to the people of Balochistan for the atrocities and injustices committed against them and pledged to turn over a new chapter of mutual respect in the province. The former Prime Minister, Ms Benazir Bhutto, had also announced at a public meeting in Dera Allahyar on December 20 that the PPPP would stop the military operation in the province after coming into power. She said the PPPP would give equal rights to all the provinces and exploitation would be ended to enable the people of Balochistan to move forward with honour. She also termed the killing of Balach Marri as a bad omen for the integrity of the Federation.

But this seems an ideal situation and ground realities will demand a diversified reconciliatory, developmental, constitutional and security initiatives leading to a strong Federation based on political autonomy. Of course, in the days ahead, the PPPP will need to deliver on its pledge of embarking on a new road to peace in Balochistan. One hopes that for this purpose the leaders of the party are genuinely committed to what will inevitably be a slow process of building trust and offering the people of Balochistan a stake in the State of Pakistan. Mistrust and apprehensions created over decades of animosity and aggravated by recent acts that include the murder of leaders such as Nawab Akbar Bugti and Balach Marri, cannot vanish in days, weeks or even months. The whole process, even once talks with all players in the Balochistan picture begin, will take time and persistent effort.

Nonetheless, the Baloch nationalist parties have, by boycotting the elections, caused a loss of the political voice of Baloch nationalists in the provincial and federal legislative process. With Baloch alienation at an all-time high, Baloch nationalists, especially the National Party (NP), the Jamhoori Watan Party (JWP) and the Balochistan National Party-Mengal (BNP-M), would have fared well if they had contested the elections to fight for the political and social rights of the province within the democratic, parliamentary framework, rather than sit on the sidelines and watch as the province continues to be in its political quagmire for the next five years.

No doubt there is uncertainty about the future of the new provincial and federal governments' handling of the province and continuation of the low-level insurgency. The PML-Q is in retreat and in humiliation across the nation, yet it has emerged as a political force in the insurgency-ridden province, managing to garner some political capital. The legitimacy of the provincial PML-Q government in the eyes of the Baloch and its ability to govern the province remain important questions in a place where a majority of voters refused to participate in the elections due to security fears and a general sense of distrust with Musharraf overseeing the election process. Baloch demands of autonomy (fiscal and political) under the 1973 Constitution, reduction of the paramilitary forces across the province, and a stop to the military operation might not be best addressed by a provincial government which does not have the ears of the new policymakers in Islamabad. Neither do the mere political slogans of reconciliation and apology serve the best interests of the people of Balochistan.