Safdar Sial

Northern Alliance and its recently extended political wing, “United National Front of Afghanistan (UNFA)”, under the aegis of some key ex-communists, are pushing Karzai regime and its chief mentor, the USA, towards political solitude in Afghanistan. Once again, America and Karzai have no one to fall back upon except Pakistan in their current fragile posture against multi-faceted resisting forces including Taliban, Hizb-e-Islami of Hikmatyar and the UNFA- comprising of veteran fighters from the ex-communist bloc and Northern Alliance. Sources privy to the current developments in Afghanistan claimed that Afghan President’s recent meeting in India, held in honour of Pakistan Prime Minister, Shaukat Aziz, is a gesture to revive the Pak-Afghan relations at this juncture of time when Afghanistan is feeling more security risks from UNFA than Taliban and Hikmatyar’s Hizb-e-Islami.
Time has divulged this fact upon Karzai that Northern Alliance had been using him for their envisaged vested interests and now, when their interests are best served, they have opened a new front against his government.  He desperately needs Pakistan now but it seems difficult for the Pakistan government to trust him after he kept on harping on the same string of infiltration in the recent past and maintained his strict stance of Taliban support from Pakistan side. On the other hand America is also feeling the Russian presence in the Afghanistan that is revamping and consolidating its relations with old chums. Russian Foreign Minister, Sargai Larof, inaugurated Russian Consulate in Afghanistan this February during his visit to the land of turmoil in a bid to seek such a political coalition there that may work well for Russian interests after American exit. This, in other words, is Pakhtoon-containment policy of Russians because Hikmatyar and Taliban’s accession to the Kabul can create a serious threat to their interests in Afghanistan. Hundreds of ex-communist workers are visiting Russian Consulate on daily basis and majority of them does not feel any communication problem for having got their education in Russia.
If one places all pieces of the recent developments in a whole and tries to perceive the idea of new-born ‘United National Front of Afghanistan’, one does not need much intelligence to comprehend the implicit factors leading Pakistan and Afghanistan to cross purposes. Some Northern Alliance high-ups in the Karzai government were clever enough to create and engulf the Pak-Afghan rift. Their success led them, later, to devise a united front with the help of ex-communists like Gulab Zai, Qayyum Qandhari, Engineer Farhad and Sher Khan. This political front enfolds some key players of Northern Alliance as well like Professor Burhan-ud-Din Rabbani, Ustad Kareem Khaleeli, Ustad Muhaqiq, Qasim Faheem and General Dostum.
The Northern Alliance hopes to fill the Afghanistan’s political voids and gaps through this front (UNFA) after Americans leave the land. They have erected their mind-projected future designs of Afghan administration and ruling patterns on the assumption of US failure and withdrawal from Afghanistan. They have also declared their new charter that seems very flexible aimed at appeasing the neighboring countries. One can allude, in this context, to their stand on Durand Line that is quite contrary to that of Afghan President, Hamid Karzai, and tribal leaders of Eastern Afghanistan. UNFA in a bid to have reconciliation with Pakistan is ready to accept Durand Line as permanent line of control. Resources told the PIPS that UNFA want to replace the existing Presidential System in Afghanistan with Parliamentary System where Prime Minister will be enjoying the powers at par with the President and Governors will also be elected by the people instead of being appointed by the President. This envisaged and chartered shift or sharing of centralized power is due to their fear that the Pakhtoon majority in the Government will keep on electing Pakhtoon President who will, in turn, appoint the Governors to his own will.
The role of consulates of Russia, India, Iran, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan can not be skipped over in bringing ex-communists and Northern Alliance’s veteran Jihadis to the net of UNFA. Nonetheless, the fear of Hikmatyar and Taliban’s accession to the Afghan capital can be ruled out by UNFA leaders in the post-US scenario. Iran has always been supporting Northern Alliance’s Jamiat Islami and Hizbe Wahdat (Kareem Khalili) whereas Abdullah Abdullah, Younis Qanooni and Qasim Faheem have good relations with India. Dostum has maintained a friendly gesture with Uzbekistan while Sayyed Gulab Zai, Qayyum Qandhari and communists have been close associates of Russia.
Afghan President, on the one hand, has criticized the UNFA designs and its strategic supporters after his recent visit to India, and on the other, has confirmed his contacts with Taliban and Hizbe Islami. He has also vowed to investigate into the formation of UNFA but this seems irrelevant as key positions in foreign and interior ministry are held by the people of Northern Alliance. UNFA is concerned about Karzai’s reconciliatory efforts with Taliban and Hikmatyar. Its main focus will be to tarnish any development that may lead these three political players to any positive agreement. Taliban threat seems to be more heightened for them than that of Hikmatyar.
These political developments in Afghanistan are making American interests and Karzai regime fragile day by day. To propagate their regime to an envisaged time-point, when the bells announcing an end to war on terror will ring, they need the support of Pakistan to get them reconciled with Taliban who have become a danger on military front for them after their accelerated attacks. Pakistan, also, can not sit aloof when Northern Alliance and their supportive consulates have given an impetus to their political activities in Afghanistan though exhibiting a friendly posture for Pakistan. Perhaps America, too, will have to opt for a strategic tolerant policy in Afghanistan to remain an active part of its mainstream where political currents are becoming strong enough to surpass the military currents. And who can be the best US-ally except Pakistan? Both, US and Karzai, have once again been compelled to seek assistance of Pakistan in the new strategic scenario of Afghanistan.