Safdar Sial

The historical Bagh-e-Bala Loya Jirga tent behind International Hotel in Kabul will be hosting 700 members of the first ever 3-day Pak-Afghan Grand Jirga from August 9 inside a three ring security corridor established by ISAF, Afghan Army and the Police. Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf will be delivering his inaugural address to initiate a revised ‘joint’ peace (counter-terrorism) drive in the region; envisaged and advocated by the American President Bush and forwarded to President Musharraf and his Afghani counterpart during their trilateral meeting in White House, Washington on September 27, 2006.
Pakistan and Afghanistan have already formed their Jirga Commissions to advance and materialize the cause. Pakistan Jirga Commission is being headed by Interior Minister Aftab Ahmed Khan Sherpao whereas Syed Ahmed Gillani is the Chairman of Afghan Jirga Commission. Since their inception, Pakistan and Afghanistan Jirga commissions have met thrice; once in Kabul and twice in Islamabad. During their third meeting, held in Nathia Gali at the start of June 2007, Pak-Afghan Jirga Commissions, besides finalizing the Terms of References, had agreed on 7-point agenda that has, now, been revised for the Grand Jirga as follows:

 Myopic Agenda and Mendacious Composition:

One does not need much time and intelligence to read between the lines of the 7-point agenda. It is simply a counter-terrorism agenda and it should be so, not only because of being key ally of the US in its war on terror but also due to this very reason that there are after all Pakistan and Afghanistan and their people who are bearing the brunt of this exercise of ‘terrorism’ and ‘counter-terrorism’. Pak-Afghan Grand Jirga will surely take into account the factors leading to terrorism, training facilities at sanctuaries and finally will try to devise a bilateral mechanism to ‘combat’ terrorism and that mechanism will be later monitored by some committees or a permanent Jirga Commission. One is astonished at this rhetorically broadened ‘myopic agenda’, aimed at discovering known things, and the means adopted to serve well the objectives. This astonishment turns into a satirical smile when one looks into the composition of this ‘Grand Jirga’. Time-honoured ground realities are alluding to something else but these people of ‘power and force’ are still stuck to their exhausted guns. Is this Jirga meant for mere designing of the new tactics and methods of use of perpetual force to curb terrorism or it is being called for restoring peace to the war-trodden Afghanistan and violence-hunt Pakistan? If later was the purpose then Jirga composition would have been quite different giving proportionate representation to the dissenting sections as well like Taliban and Hikmatyar and other groups.
Pakistan and Afghanistan and at the most the US should not have skipped over the current resurrection of the Taliban in Afghanistan who have expanded their operations and influence from the South-Western provinces of Zabul, Oruzgan, Helmend and parts of Kandahar to the Western provinces of Heart, Farah, Ghor and Baghdais, with the assistance of non-Taliban warlords. Similarly, they gained a foothold in the South-Eastern provinces of Kunar, Paktia, Khost, Gardez and Nangarhar. Perhaps this was the reason when Afghan Senate (colloquially known as Meshrano Jirga) had urged immediate talks with Taliban. This move by the 101 members’ house, headed by its Chairman Sibghatullah Mojadidi, is as valid today as it was before. Governments of Pakistan and Afghanistan should have extended reconciliatory hand towards them by imbedding them in Jirga composition to find some political solution where Taliban could play a key role.
Though establishment of Pak-Afghan Jirga was decided at white house in September 2006 yet the blame game played by both sides (Pakistan and Afghanistan) could not let the Jirga configure. During the Ankara meeting Karzai and Musharraf reaffirmed their resolve to hold the Jirga, and subsequently the Jirga met in Kabul on May 4 and 5. This Jirga was about Taliban, Hizb-e-Islami and other resisting groups and their resurgence, establishment of peace among tribes on the border, and other border issues. But it was felt difficult to have all these people into Jirga. If Afghans were made to take part in Jirga, their first demand would have been the detention of the foreign forces from Afghanistan. American monarchs had already made it clear that they were not ready to accept the Afghan Jirga rather such kind of Jirga commission should be formed, which could establish some practicable ‘line of action’ instead of talking about the prevailing issues.
Taliban have refuted the establishment of the Pak-Afghan Jirga and consider it a betrayal with Afghanis. The same way Hizb-e-Islami is also not ready to accept the status of Jirga. There are many southern powers in Afghanistan who want to see a majority of southern alliance in Afghan Jirga so that Pak-Afghan relation could improve and the increasing cross-borer conflicts could be stopped. According to Kabul, forming Pak-Afghan Jirga is very important and as Afghan Senate had allowed Karzai to have a direct dialogue with Taliban, Hikmatyar and other resisting groups, this opportunity should not have missed.
Similarly another similar chance was missed when Hikmatyar delivered a statement regarding the support of US-backed Afghan president Hamid Karzai after an offer of dialogue and reconciliation hinting at pardoning Mullah Omar and Hikmatyar made to him by Karzai and Afghan parliament. Hikmatyar has a lot of supporters in Afghan parliament who could show impressive performance there if government were willing to make him a part of the grand Jirga. Political experts believe that Hikmatyar was desirous of becoming a part of the ongoing political process. He is the only Pashtun after Hamid Karzai who still possesses significant importance among the Pashtuns. But unluckily he has also been kept out of the ongoing Jirga process.

Who is then Participating?

Besides Taliban and Hikmatyar, tribal elders from North and South Waziristan Agencies, who were nominated on the Pak-Afghan grand Jirga, have also boycotted the Jirga. Most of them did not even attend the Jirga briefing held at Governor’s House, Peshawar on August 4 saying that how they could extinguish fire in others’ houses when their own houses were burning. More than 50 nominees from both agencies boycotted briefing indicating they will not be part of the Pak-Afghan Jirga process.
Apart from tribal elders, MNAs and senators from FATA also boycotted the briefing because they had reservations about the nomination of the members on the Jirga. Senator Saleh Shah said no parliamentarian from FATA will attend the Jirga. MNA Khalilur Rehman denounced the Jirga for Taliban had not been included in the Jirga process. Similarly Jamiat Ulema e Islam (Fazlur Rehman group) has also expressed its reservation on Jirga and, till last reports, was not ready to participate. There are reports that a good number of Maliks also did not show up in Peshawar because of the death threats that they had received from the local "Taliban" of their respective areas. Four members from the Khyber agency also refused to attend the Jirga. Resentment has been expressed by many tribal leaders on the conspicuous absence of Taliban leaders from the upcoming Jirga. They are of the view that in the absence of genuine tribal leadership, the Jirga will be as ineffective as the rest of the NATO-led alliance's plans in Afghanistan. Awami National Party also showed reluctance to be part of this Jirga process but was then convinced. Pakhtoon Qaumi Jirga has criticized Pak-Afghan Jirga due to its composition constituting a majority of serving and retired bureaucrats, pro-govt tribal elders and politicians.
But according to Rustam Shah Momand –ex Pakistani Ambassador to Afghanistan and an important aid to Jirga process- member delegates have been drawn from a wide spectrum of people from NWFP and FATA, including tribal elders, social and political figures, officials, journalists, Ulema and intelligentsia.
He has further claimed that as the Afghan issues will be discussed in the Jirga so these boycotts of political and tribal figures don’t matter.

What may be the Outcome!

There is, no doubt, a great deal of optimism in Washington about the Pak-Afghan Grand Jirga. In Mr. Bush’s words, the joint Jirga would discuss reconciliation and how Pakistan and Afghanistan could work together to achieve common solutions to the problems. So it is a reconciliation effort between the ‘Allies’ and the opponents are not there rather one can say the allies, this way, will safeguard and promote the US agenda of counter-terrorism as Mr. Bush had stated at Camp David at his press conference with Mr. Karzai on Monday (August 6), “the main problem is to fight terrorism, to recognize that history has called us into action”.
The most important question before the 700 delegates of the Jirga would be: whether the participants would be able to deliver on the hopes and aspirations of millions of people living on both sides of the Pak-Afghan border? From the Afghan perspective they have done their homework and are obviously looking forward to an event that they believed could prove instrumental in restoring peace in their country ravaged by decades of war and internecine fighting. But given the state of decades of mistrust and suspicion of each other’s actions, the Afghans wonder why Pakistan did not agree to the UN supervision of the grand Jirga.
There is a perception that Afghanistan would use the Jirga platform to heap blames on Pakistan (highlighting the 2nd and 3rd point of the agenda) for all the ills afflicting Afghanistan. And if briefings given to Pak Jirga Commission members are anything to go by, the main thrust is on how to ‘forcefully counter’ and defend Pakistan, should their Afghan counterparts decide to indulge in the so-called blame game. In order to defend itself against accusation from Kabul of fueling the Taliban insurgency, Islamabad may adopt the stance that much of the terrorism that has come to hunt Pakistan is solely due to the situation in Afghanistan.   
Owing to its mendacious composition, the Jirga is prone to many valid questions from tribal perspective: what would be the mandate of such an assembly (Jirga)? Will the Jirga have the requisite authority or ‘waak’ as it is called in Pashto, to decide on matters between conflicting parties? A Jirga is composed to comprise neutral people, respected by and acceptable to all parties in a conflict, whose verdict is deemed final and binding on all sides. So, will the Jirga have the mandate to include or hold talks with the Afghan Taliban and whether it will have the authority to take decisions that would be acceptable to all sides, including Mr. Karzai’s principal backers in Washington?
There is a potential risk of this grand Jirga being turned into ‘grandeur Jirga’; a mere road show or a kind of ‘huge’ get-together using the resources and money of the people but doing nothing for the people. It seems a seminar that would generate debate and discussion (yielding the results already known to everyone) but may produce little or no results to help restore peace in both countries.  Or one could see in Jirga a public relations exercise that also, now, seems difficult given the participation and composition of the Jirga.
But this is not the all as Jirga exercise will continue. This can be made a beginning of a continuing peace process enfolding more and more segments into it. The only purpose that seems to be fulfilled by Pak-Afghan Grand Jirga is that it can, now onward, provide a readily available forum for peace-making efforts in the future. If the Taliban are to be militarily cornered first, even then a political platform will be needed at the final stage. When that need arises the membership of the Jirga could be expanded to include those Taliban who lay down their arms and renounce violence. Then there will be the issue of Afghan refugees, though not seems to be on agenda this time, which will be calling for Pak-Afghan Grand Jirga to discuss and evolve a bilateral mechanism for their repatriation and surely once again committees will be needed to monitor the repatriation process. Future will decide the fate of the Jirga but fate of the people of both the countries is not associated with this US-directed ‘grandeur Jirga’.